定向降准政策真的能够促进企业贷款需求吗  

Can the Targeted Monetary Policy Promote the Loan Demandof Enterprises?

作　　者：张炜[1,2] 潘紫媗[1] ZHANG Wei;PAN Zi-juan

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300314 [2]南开大学协同创新中心

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2022年第4期51-64,共14页Journal of Huaqiao University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划项目“货币政策传导机制有效性与调控方式转型”(TJLJ20-003)。

摘　　要：实施有效的定向降准政策对推动我国经济行稳致远具有重要作用。以泰勒规则与定向降准政策传导机制为基础,利用双重差分法与VAR模型,选取2010—2020年的季度数据,分析定向降准对目标对象的有效性和非目标对象的溢出作用,并研究多轮定向降准政策发布对目标对象和非目标对象的叠加作用,结果表明:定向降准政策具有一定的时滞性,企业贷款意愿不足,传导机制受阻,且对非目标企业与行业均有一定的溢出作用,多轮政策叠加对农业、小微企业起到了纠正偏差的作用。为了进一步增强定向降准政策的有效性,需加大政策实施力度,着重疏通传导渠道,立足市场现状与主体真实需求,科学制定定向降准政策,建立配套监管体系,密切追踪资金流向,严格制定考核标准等。The implementation of an effective targeted monetary policy plays an important role in promoting the stability and long-term development of China’s economy.Based on the Taylor rule and transmission mechanism of the targeted monetary policy,using the double difference method and the VAR model,this paper selects the quarterly data from 2010 to 2020,analyzes the effectiveness of targeted monetary on target objects and the spillover effect of non-target objects,and studies the superposition effect of many rounds of targeted monetary on target and non-targeted targets.The results show that the targeted monetary policy has a certain time lag and a certain spillover effect on the non-targeted companies and industries,the willing of corporate loan is insufficient,transmission mechanism is blocked,and the superposition of multiple rounds of policies has played a role in correcting deviations for agriculture and small enterprises.In order to further enhance the effectiveness of the targeted monetary policy,it is necessary to strengthen the implementation of the policy,focus on clearing the transmission channels,based on the current market situation and the actual demands of the main body,scientifically formulate the targeted monetary policy,establish a supporting regulatory system,closely track the flow of funds,and strictly formulate assessment standards,etc.

关 键 词：定向降准 传导机制 有效性评价 双重差分法 脉冲响应分析 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]