受上游调控影响的水库入库流量预报方法研究  

Research on the Forecast Method of Reservoir Inflow Affected by Upstream Regulation

作　　者：黄馗 穆振宇 艾学山[2,3,4] 陈森林[2,3] 郭佳俊 丁杰 HUANG Kui;MU Zhen-yu;AI Xue-shan;CHEN Sen-lin;GUO Jia-jun;DING Jie(Guangxi Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center,Nanning 530023,China;School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]广西电网电力调度中心,广西530013 [2]武汉大学水利水电学院,武汉430072 [3]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [4]海绵城市建设水系统科学湖北省重点实验室(武汉大学),武汉430072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第8期78-83,89,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：广西电网公司科技项目(0400002020030103DD00134);国家自然科学基金项目(51779177)。

摘　　要：流域梯级水电站之间水流演进计算存在两个方面的问题:一是因库容曲线、泄流特性曲线及机组耗流量特性曲线等不够精确,计算的出库水量和时段库容变化量不可避免的存在误差,从而导致梯级水电站之间的水量不平衡问题;二是短时段计算所得到的入库流量过程“锯齿”现象严重。针对这两个问题,本文提出一种受上游水库调控影响的日时段入库流量预报方法,将入库流量分为上游水库出库流量与区间产汇流两部分,以日为时段长,以水量平衡理论、马斯京根汇流系数法以及API模型为理论基础,在上游水库出流的河道演算中引入修正系数处理区间来水或引水问题,应用API模型计算区间产汇流过程。通过郁江流域西津水库的实际应用表明,率定期纳什效率系数(NSE)为0.943,检验期纳什效率系数(NSE)为0.914。结果表明该方法充分考虑了水文学基本原理和流域水电站水库运行实际情况,可有效解决梯级水电站间水量不平衡问题并有效避免了短时段入库流量的波动问题。There are two problems in the calculation of water flow evolution between cascade hydropower stations in the basin.One is that due to the imprecision of storage capacity curve,discharge characteristic curve and unit consumption characteristic curve,there are inevitable er‐rors in the calculated outgoing water volume and the change of storage capacity during the period,resulting in water imbalance between cas‐cade hydropower stations.Second,the“sawtooth”phenomenon in the process of inflow flow obtained by short-term calculations is serious.To solve the two problems,this paper proposes a daily inflow forecasting method affected by the regulation of the upstream reservoir.The in‐flow is divided into two parts:the inflow of the upstream reservoir and the runoff of the interval.Taking the day as the length of the period,and based on the water balance theory,Muskingum confluence coefficient methodand API model,a correction coefficient is introduced into the river routing of the outflow of the upstream reservoir to deal with the problem of interval inflow or diversion,API model is used to calcu‐late the interval runoff process.The practical application of Xijin Reservoir in Yujiang River Basin shows that the periodic Nash-Sutcliffe effi‐ciency coefficient(NSE)is 0.943 and the inspection period Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)is 0.914.This method fully consid‐ers the basic principle of hydrology and the actual operation of hydropower stations and reservoirs in the basin,which can effectively solve the problem of water imbalance between cascade hydropower stations and effectively avoid the fluctuation of inflow in a short period of time.

关 键 词：水库调控 入库流量 API模型 马斯京根汇流系数法 预报方法 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]