基于贝叶斯定性定量对塔顶冷凝系统安全风险评价  

Safety Risk Assessment of Overhead Condensation System Based on Bayesian Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

作　　者：邓捷 林晨 赵鲁迪 马玉波 王海博 DENG Jie;LIN Chen;ZHAO Lu-di;MA Yu-bo(Shenyang University of Chemical Technology,Shenyang Liaoning 110142,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳化工大学,辽宁沈阳110142 [2]不详

出　　处：《辽宁化工》2022年第8期1098-1100,共3页Liaoning Chemical Industry

基　　金：大学生创新创业项目(项目编号:S202110149017)。

摘　　要：安全风险评价是有效预防事故发生的重要途径。在常压塔空冷器腐蚀问题中,研究腐蚀失效诊断、腐蚀风险评估以及缺陷安全评定的方法是技术关键。简要综述了利用贝叶斯与确定因子联系的方式构建设备致裂机理的诊断模型,解决以往研究的局限性,同时根据实例证明该诊断模型的可行性。Safety risk assessment is an important way to effectively prevent accidents. In the corrosion problem of atmospheric tower air cooler, the research on the methods of corrosion failure diagnosis, corrosion risk assessment and defect safety assessment is the technical key. In this paper, the construction of the diagnostic model of equipment cracking mechanism by using the relationship between Bayesian and determining factors was briefly summarized, the limitations of previous research were solved, and the feasibility of the diagnostic model was proved according to an example.

关 键 词：常压塔塔顶系统 空冷器腐蚀 贝叶斯 确定因子 腐蚀模型 

分 类 号：TQ050.9[化学工程]