极限制裁下的反制裁:博弈、影响及展望  

Countersanctions against the Harshest Package:Competition,Impact and Future Prospects

作　　者：高际香[1] Gao Jixiang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

出　　处：《欧亚经济》2022年第4期21-41,125,127,共23页Journal of Eurasian Economy

基　　金：科技部项目“新时代中俄科技创新合作战略研究”(项目编号:ZLY202167);中国社会科学院创新工程“学者资助计划”项目“俄罗斯经济地理与地区投资环境研究”(项目编号:XJ2022008)。

摘　　要：乌克兰危机升级后,美西方对俄罗斯发起以全面孤立与弱化为目标的高强度与高密度制裁,特别是金融制裁的全面化与极限化、运输物流制裁的“全域围堵”、科技制裁的“全面脱钩”、能源制裁的立场趋近更是超乎预期。俄罗斯应对制裁未雨绸缪、先行布局,紧急采取卢布与黄金和天然气“双锚定”、冲击西方知识产权体系的科技反制等非常规措施。美西方与俄罗斯的制裁与反制裁已经形成系统性、全面性、体系性博弈,其对抗之烈、范围之广、影响之深,前所未见。俄罗斯金融体系暂时抵御了制裁带来的强烈冲击,但后续实体经济发展不容乐观;欧洲面临滞胀风险加剧、企业遭受重大损失、能源制裁立场分歧引发内部裂痕、对美能源依赖加深等困局;世界经济则受到粮食安全风险陡增、能源价格高企的冲击。美西方与俄罗斯制裁与反制裁博弈或将引发以下图景:俄罗斯与西方主导的全球化体系渐行渐远、全球产业分工逻辑发生根本改变、全球金融格局加速调整重构、俄欧关系转圜难度加大。Sanctions and countersanctions between Russia and the West have been developed into systemic and full-scale conflicts.Russia’s financialsystem temporarily resisted the impact of sanctions.However,the future of the reale conomy is not optimistic.Europe is facing the risks of stagflation,significant losson enterprises,internal division,and the reliance on US energy supply,etc.Thew orld economy is exposed to risks of food security and high energy prices.It is notimpossible that Russia get away from the global system dominated by theW est.The logic behind the industrial division of labor is expected to undergofundamental changes while the pace of the restructuration of the global financials ystem will be quickened.Hence it is not likely for the Russia-European relationsto be improved in the foreseeable future.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 制裁 反制裁 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]