中国沿海省份海洋船舶产业链韧性测度及其影响因素  

Resilience Measurement and Influencing Factors of the Marine Ship Industry Chain in China's Coastal Areas

作　　者：王泽宇[1,2] 唐云清 韩增林[1,2] 王焱熙 WANG Zeyu;TANG Yunqing;HAN Zenglin;WANG Yanxi(Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,Liaoning,China;School of Geography,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,中国辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学地理科学学院,中国辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《经济地理》2022年第7期117-125,共9页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21FJLB034);辽宁省委组织部青年拔尖人才项目(XLYC1907027);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L20AJY003);辽宁省社会科学联合会项目(2020lslktqn-048);辽宁省教育厅重点项目(LJKR0304)。

摘　　要：基于韧性理论,结合海洋船舶产业链韧性内涵构建评价指标体系,文章运用基于虚拟最劣解TOPSIS和灰色关联度的动态评价模型测度其韧性,依托核密度估计和GIS空间分析技术探究海洋船舶产业链韧性的时空分异特征,最后使用地理探测器和双向固定效应模型分析影响海洋船舶产业链韧性的因素。结果表明:①2006—2017年中国沿海省份海洋船舶产业链韧性整体呈上升趋势;分维度来看,抵御能力、恢复能力和更新能力波动上升,再组织能力则有所下降。②海洋船舶产业链韧性呈现低值区持续降低、中高值区先提高后降低的态势;两极分化程度先加深后趋于改善。③海洋船舶产业链韧性的空间格局较稳定;相比于环渤海和珠三角,长三角海洋船舶产业链韧性水平更高,且长三角以北总体略强于以南。④投资基础、融资环境、交通设施对海洋船舶产业链韧性具有正向影响,对外开放则对其有负向影响。According to the resilience theory,this paper defines the connotation of the resilience of the marine ship industry chain and builds its evolution index system.It measures the resilience of the marine ship industry chain by the means of the virtual worst solution TOPSIS and gray correlation degree,uses GIS technology and kernel density estimation to analyze its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics,and detects the factors that affect the resilience of the marine ship industry chain based on Geodetector and two-way fixed effect models.The research results are as follows:1)The resilience of the marine ship industry chain in the coastal areas of China has been improved,and the industry chain's resistance,recovery,and renewal capabilities have been improved,while the reorganization capability declines.2)It shows a trend of continuous decrease in areas at the low-value resilience and fluctuation change.The resilience is firstly enhanced but then weakened in areas at the middle-and high-value resilience.Overall,the polarization tends to be mitigated.3)The spatial pattern of the resilience of the marine ship industry chain has not changed much.There is stronger resilience of the marine ship industry chain in the Yangtze River Delta than that in the Bohai Rim and the Pearl River Delta.The resilience of the marine ship industry chain in the north of the Yangtze River Delta is generally slightly stronger than that in the south.4)The investment basement,financing environment,and transportation infrastructure conditions have a positive impact on the resilience of the marine ship industry chain,while opening to the outside world has a negative impact on it.

关 键 词：海洋船舶业 产业链 韧性 高质量发展 地理探测器 科技创新 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]