水运安全“黑天鹅”“灰犀牛”事件及典型案例  

"Black Swan"and"Grey Rhino"events in the field of water transportation safety and typical cases

作　　者：朱建华[1] ZHU Jianhua(Institute of Water Transport Science,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部水运科学研究院,北京100088

出　　处：《水上安全》2022年第1期20-25,共6页MARITIME SAFETY

摘　　要：针对如何防范化解水运安全重大风险问题,首先介绍了“黑天鹅”“灰犀牛”事件的由来、特征及区别,然后提出了水运安全领域可能发生的“黑天鹅”“灰犀牛”事件的主要类别,并列举、分析了若干个典型案例,对于预测、研判及防控重大风险具有借鉴作用。This paper introduces the origin and characteristics of the"Black Swan"event and the"Grey Rhinoceros"event.In view of how to prevent and defuse the major risks of water transportation safety,it summarizes and puts forward the main categories of possible"Black Swan"and"Grey Rhinoceros"events in the field of water transportation safety,and analyzes several typical cases.

关 键 词：水运安全 黑天鹅 灰犀牛 事件 

分 类 号：U615[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]