金融周期与经济周期的测算与比较:以新兴国家为例  

Measurement and Comparison of Financial Cycle and Economic Cycle:A Case Study of Emerging Countries

作　　者：韩田 Han Tian(School of Big Data Application and Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学大数据应用与经济学院,贵阳550025

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第15期132-138,共7页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划一般项目(20GZYB13)。

摘　　要：金融周期与经济周期的时域波动刻画一般由转折点法和滤波法确定。这两种方法的缺陷在于人为判断周期和提前设定长频段范围而导致测度结果被人为干预。文章以新兴国家作为研究对象,拓展频谱测度金融周期的样本;结合频谱测度结果,重新勾勒中国金融周期和经济周期的时域波动,观察中国金融“顺周期性”的特征表现。结果显示,新兴国家金融周期和经济周期代表指标有的处于短周期范围,有的处于中周期范围;而中国的金融周期比经济周期短,但从时域上看中国有明显的金融“顺周期”效应。The time domain fluctuation characterization of financial cycle and economic cycle is generally determined by turning point method and filtering method. The defects of these two methods lie in the artificial judgment period and the setting of long frequency range in advance, resulting in the artificial intervention of measurement results. This paper takes emerging countries as the research object and expands the spectrum of financial cycle measurement samples. Combined with the spectral analysis results, the paper sketches the contours of the time domain fluctuations of China’s financial cycle and economic cycle once again, and also observes the characteristics of China’s financial“pro-cycle”. The results show that the financial cycle and economic cycle indicators of emerging countries are in the short cycle range, and some are in the medium cycle range. China’s financial cycle is shorter than the economic cycle, but from the perspective of time, China has obvious financial“pro-cyclical”effect.

关 键 词：金融周期 经济周期 频谱分析 傅里叶变化 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F124