医疗设备采购需求优先级的预测评估方法研究  

Prediction and evaluation method for priority of medical equipment purchasing demands

作　　者：彭玉 姚洪生[1] 金福兴 PENG Yu;YAO Hong-sheng;JIN Fu-xing(Department of Equipment,Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University,Wuhan 430071,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学中南医院设备处,武汉430071

出　　处：《医疗卫生装备》2022年第7期64-68,共5页Chinese Medical Equipment Journal

摘　　要：目的:预测与评估医疗设备采购的需求优先级,实现从传统的专家主观定性评价向客观定量评价的转变。方法:以某院设备采购为例,将设备采购需求分为3个等级,以设备使用频次衡量设备使用情况,运用相关性分析方法分析门诊、住院和体检就诊人次与设备使用频次之间的相关性,对具有统计学意义的数据建立就诊人次与设备平均使用频次的回归模型,并预测下一年设备平均使用频次,以确定设备采购需求。以该医院甲、乙科室分别采购A、B型设备为例,验证预测方法的可行性。结果:使用该方法预测的设备平均使用频次与实际使用频次的误差低于2%,准确度较高,可较好地预测设备下一年的采购需求。结论:提出的方法能有效预测评估设备采购的需求优先级,可为医疗设备采购论证及优化采购方案提供定量参考。Objective To predict and evaluate the demand priority of medical equipment purchasing,and to change traditional expert subjective qualitative evaluation into objective quantitative evaluation for medical equipment purchasing demand priority.Methods The medical equipment purchasing in some hospital was taken as an example.The equipment purchasing demands were divided into 3 classes,and equipment usage was measured by equipment usage frequency.Correlation analysis was applied to analyzing the relationship between the number of people visiting outpatient,inpatient and physical examination departments and equipment usage frequency.A regression model between the number of visits and the average frequency of equipment usage was established for statistically significant data,and the average frequency of equipment usage in the next year was predicted to determine the equipment purchasing demands.The feasibility of the prediction method was verified by purchasing A and B type equipment in two departments of this hospital respectively.Results The error between the average frequency of equipment use predicted using this method and the actual frequency was less than 2%,and it could be used to predict the medical equipment purchasing demands in the next year.Conclusion The proposed method can effectively predict and evaluate the demand priority of equipment purchasing,which provides quantitative references for demonstration of medical equipment purchasing and optimization of purchasing plan.[Chinese Medical Equipment Journal,2022,43(7):64-68]

关 键 词：医疗设备 采购需求 使用频次 预测评估 优先级 

分 类 号：R318[医药卫生—生物医学工程] R197.39[医药卫生—基础医学]