碳中和愿景下浙江省工业部门碳达峰预测与实现策略  

Prediction and Realization Strategy of the Carbon Peak of the Industrial Sector in Zhejiang Province under the Vision of Carbon Neutrality

作　　者：蒋惠琴[1] 李奕萱 陈苗苗 邵鑫潇 JIANG Huiqin;LI Yixuan;CHEN Miaomiao;SHAO Xinxiao(School of Public Administration,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学公共管理学院,杭州310023

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2022年第4期157-161,168,共6页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY20G030022);浙江省社会科学规划项目(22NDJC058YB);浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划(新苗人才计划)资助项目(2021R403049)。

摘　　要：选取工业产值、能源消费、煤炭消耗、能源效率等关键指标,建立STIRPAT模型,对浙江省工业及重点行业进行碳达峰研究。结果表明:①在低碳情景下,工业部门九大分行业除石油行业以外均可实现在2030年前达峰。②在5种达峰策略中,浙江省工业整体仅在低碳情景策略下可实现2028年提前达峰。③不同情景下,浙江省工业部门达峰峰值处于3.516亿~5.481亿t CO_(2)区间内。提出差异化减排政策措施、分批次达峰目标、工业部门整体统筹规划等发展建议。This paper selects industrial output value,energy consumption,coal consumption,energy efficiency and other key indicators to establish the STIRPAT model of carbon peak of industrial sectors in Zhejiang Province,and employs the ridge regression method to study the carbon peak of industries and key industries in Zhejiang Province.The results show that:①Under the low carbon scenario,all the nine major industries except petroleum industry can reach their peak before 2030.②Among the five peaking strategies,Zhejiang’s industry as a whole can only achieve the peak carbon emissions in 2028 under the low-carbon scenario strategy.③Under different circumstances,the peak of Zhejiang’s industrial sector is between 351.6 million to 548.1 million tons.This study finally puts forward suggestions such as differentiated emission reduction policies and measures,mitigation targets in batches,and overall planning of the industrial sector.

关 键 词：工业部门 碳达峰 STIRPAT模型 岭回归 浙江省 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]