典型浅水湖泊水温长期变化特征及其与气候因素相关性分析  

Characteristic of long-term water temperature variation in typical shallow lake and correlation analysis with climate factors

作　　者：孙静静 王梦竹 黄朝 李静 童银栋[1] SUN Jingjing;WANG Mengzhu;HUANG Zhao;LI Jing;TONG Yindong(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350;Focused Photonics Inc.,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310051;School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387)

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300350 [2]聚光科技(杭州)股份有限公司,浙江杭州310051 [3]天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院,天津300387

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2022年第8期979-985,992,共8页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(No.41977324、No.41630748);天津市自然科学基金面上项目(No.20JCYBJC01080)。

摘　　要：以典型浅水湖泊——太湖作为研究对象,通过2006—2019年表层水温观测数据分析浅水湖泊水温长期变化规律,利用FLake模型分析导致湖泊升温的主要气候因素及其贡献,并预测3种气候变化情景下水温潜在变化趋势。结果表明:(1)2006—2019年,太湖表层水温以0.07℃/a速率上升,其中春季水温增加更显著(p<0.05);(2)向下太阳辐射增强是太湖年际水温上升的主要气候因素,其导致太湖表层水温约上升0.01℃/a;(3)在未来气候变化情景下,太湖表层水温将以0.02~0.05℃/a的速率继续上升;(4)浅水型湖泊水温正在发生迅速变化,并且对气候变化十分敏感。考虑到水温上升可能导致的一系列潜在负面生态效应,在湖泊未来水质管理中需要对此予以高度重视。Taking the typical shallow lake(Taihu Lake)as the research object,the long-term water temperature variation in the shallow lake was analyzed by surface water temperature observation data from 2006 to 2019.The FLake model was used to analyze the main climate factors and their contributions that caused the lake warming,and predict the potential change trend of lake temperature under 3 climate change scenarios.The results showed that:(1)during the period of 2006-2019,the surface water temperature of Taihu Lake increased at a rate of 0.07℃per year,and this increase was more significant in spring(p<0.05).(2)The increase in downward solar radiation was the main climate factor for the increase of the lake’s annual water temperature,which led to an annual increase of 0.01℃in the surface water temperature of Taihu Lake.(3)Under future climate change scenarios,the surface water temperature of Taihu Lake would continue to rise at a rate of 0.02-0.05℃per year.(4)The water temperature of shallow lakes was changing rapidly and very sensitive to climate change.Considering a series of potential negative ecological effects caused by water temperature rising,great attention shoud be paid to lake water quality management in the future.

关 键 词：浅水型湖泊 水温 气候因素 湖泊热量平衡 模拟 

分 类 号：P343.3[天文地球—水文科学] P467[天文地球—地球物理学]