北京冬奥会中国奖牌数量及整体实力的预测--基于东道主效应及灰色预测模型  

Prediction of the Number of Medals and Overall Strength of the Beijing Winter Olympics--Based on the Host Effect and Grey Prediction Model

作　　者：罗玉波 程艳芳 李梦尧 谢欣儒 黄烁烁 LUO Yubo;CHENG Yanfang;LI Mengyao;XIE Xinru;HUANG Shuoshuo(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing,100048 China)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学数学与统计学院,北京100048

出　　处：《当代体育科技》2022年第21期183-186,共4页Contemporary Sports Technology

摘　　要：在冬奥会来临之际,该文首先根据过去23届冬奥会的数据,计算了奖牌数及总得分的东道主效应,分析了东道主效应变化的趋势,并给出了2022年东道主效应值的预测,然后利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,结合东道主效应,对中国在北京冬奥会上取得的奖牌数及总得分进行了预测,同时给出了我国金牌数的世界排名预测。结果显示,冬奥会的东道主效应呈现出递减趋势,但仍有显著作用,在比赛和备战的主场优势下,我国将在北京冬奥会上获得6~7枚金牌,金牌榜排名进入前10位之列。On the approach of the Winter Olympic Games,this article firstly calculates the host effect of the number of medals and total scores based on the data of the past 23 Winter Olympics,then analyzes the trend of the host effect change and also gives a prediction of the host effect value in 2022.Then the number of medals and the total score of China in this winter Olympic Games are predicted by using the Grey Prediction Model combined with the host effect.At the same time,the world ranking prediction of the number of gold medals in China is given.The results show that the host effect of the Winter Olympic Games shows a decreasing trend,but it still has a significant role.With the host advantage of competition and preparation,China will win 6~7 gold medals in the Beijing Winter Olympic Games,ranking among the top 10 in the gold medal list.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 东道主效应 奖牌预测 冬奥会 

分 类 号：G812[文化科学—体育学]