人类活动干扰下丰满Ⅱ区流域水文干旱演变特征分析  

Analysis of Hydrological Drought Evolution under Human Activities in Fengman Sub-basinⅡ

作　　者：陈亚男 丁伟[1] 王猛 初京刚[1] 刘启宁 CHEN Yanan;DING Wei;WANG Meng;CHU Jinggang;LIU Qining(School of Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Dalian Water Group Limited Company,Dalian 116011,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]大连市水务集团有限公司,辽宁大连116011

出　　处：《水文》2022年第4期12-17,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0406001);国家自然科学基金青年基金(51709036)。

摘　　要：基于游程理论识别丰满Ⅱ区流域水文干旱事件,分析干旱频率、烈度、历时特征及其演化规律,并采用SWAT模型量化气候变化与人类活动对水文干旱特征变化的贡献。结果表明:人类活动对丰满Ⅱ区流域1976—2016的水文干旱严重化起主要贡献,与流域相对天然期(1956—1975)相比,人类活动使1976—2016年间水文干旱频率由0.30增加至0.41,干旱事件的平均烈度增大了65%、平均历时延长了22%,并促进了超长期水文干旱的发生。流域内大量水库、塘坝的季节性拦蓄径流行为是造成流域出口断面处径流大幅减小,水文干旱发生频率增加、历时与烈度增大的主要原因。This paper analyzed the frequency,intensity,duration and evaluation law of hydrological drought events in Fengman sub-basin II based on run theory,and established SWAT model to evaluate the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought char⁃acteristics.The results show that the increasing severity of hydrological drought during the impact period(1976-2016)was mainly due to hu⁃man activities.Compared with natural period(1956-1975),human activities increased the frequency of hydrological drought in the impact pe⁃riod from 0.30 to 0.41,and increased the average intensity and duration of drought events by 65%and 22%,respectively.Moreover,the occur⁃rence of ultra-long-term hydrological drought also increased.The impoundment of reservoirs and ponds within the basin are the main reasons for the significant decrease in runoff at the outlet,as well as the increase in the frequency,duration and intensity of streamflow drought.

关 键 词：丰满Ⅱ区流域 水文干旱 SWAT模型 人类活动影响 定量分析 

分 类 号：P462[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]