祁连山国家公园生态承载力年际变化特征及其影响因素分析  

Inter-annual Variation of Ecological Carrying Capacity and Its Controlling Factors in Qilian Mountain National Park

作　　者：单姝瑶 徐浩杰 杨磊[1] 齐效镰 陈甜 陈生云 高雅月 SHAN Shu-yao;XU Hao-jie;Yang Lei;Qi Xiao-lian;CHEN Tian;CHEN Sheng-yun;GAO Ya-yue(State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems/Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry,Ministry of Education/College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou,Gansu Province 730020,China;Cryosphere and Eco-Environment Research Station of Shule River Headwaters/State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science/Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou,Gansu Province 730000,China;Long-term National Scientific Research Base of the Qilian Mountain National Park,Xining,Qinghai Province 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室/兰州大学农业农村部草牧业创新重点实验室/兰州大学草地农业教育部工程研究中心/兰州大学草地农业科技学院,甘肃兰州730020 [2]疏勒河源冰冻圈与生态环境综合监测研究站/冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室/中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]祁连山国家公园国家长期科研基地,青海西宁810000

出　　处：《草地学报》2022年第8期2191-2198,共8页Acta Agrestia Sinica

基　　金：青海省重点研发与转化计划项目(2020-SF-146);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41901113);甘肃省青年科技基金计划项目(20 JR5RA232)资助。

摘　　要：基于2000—2019年祁连山国家公园境内的卫星遥感和社会经济统计数据,综合运用DPSIR、TOPSIS和障碍度模型,构建生态承载力评价指标体系,分析生态承载力年际变化特征,量化生态承载力状况,揭示影响生态承载力的主要障碍因素。结果表明:研究时段内生态承载力状况较差,经济发展与生态环境保护矛盾突出。2000—2014年生态承载力降低,2014—2019年生态承载力增加。驱动力和压力子系统变化是导致2014年之前生态承载力降低的主要因素,2014年以后生态承载力增加是驱动力、压力和响应子系统共同作用的结果。响应子系统是影响现阶段生态承载力的主要障碍因素,其次是驱动力和压力子系统。随时间推移,响应子系统对生态承载力的影响减弱,驱动力子系统对生态承载力的影响增强。未来应将国家公园纳入区域发展,耦合协调生态环境保护与社会经济发展的关系。Based on the satellite remote sensing and socio-economic statistical data of Qilian Mountain National Park from 2000 to 2019,as well as the DPSIR,TOPSIS and obstacle degree models,this study built an assessment indicator system for ecological carrying capacity(ECC).We also investigated the inter-annual variation and the status of ECC.The dominant obstacle factors for ECC were examined.The results showed that the overall status of ECC was relatively poor during the study period,suggesting that the contradiction between economic development and eco-environment protection was manifest.ECC decreased from 2000 to 2014 and then increased afterwards.Driving force and pressure subsystems were the dominant factors for ECC decline before 2014.Nevertheless,the increase of ECC after 2014 was caused by the changes of driving force,pressure and response subsystems.The response subsystem was the main obstacle factor that affected ECC dynamics,followed by driving force and pressure subsystems.Influence of the response subsystem on ECC decreased over time,but an increasing impact of the driving force subsystem on ECC occurred.It is suggested that Qilian Mountain National Park should be included in future regional development to build a harmonious relationship between eco-environment protection and socioeconomic development.

关 键 词：DPSIR模型 贴近度 障碍度 趋势分析 驱动力 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]