中国省域粮食储备和粮食安全风险的耦合协调关系研究  

Research on the coupling and coordination relationship between China’s provincial grain reserve and security risk

作　　者：韩建军[1] 侯纪伟 程玉[1] 侯婧祎 HAN Jianjun;HOU Jiwei;CHENG Yu;HOU Jingyi(School of Civil Engineering,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学土木工程学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2022年第4期706-714,共9页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：国家粮食局粮食公益性行业科研专项(201513007)。

摘　　要：【目的】在对中国粮食储备目标及产供需状况变化分析的基础上,从粮食储备与粮食安全风险耦合协调的角度分析中国省域粮食储备与对应风险的匹配关系。【方法】通过构建省域粮食储备(GRE)与粮食安全风险(GSR)的耦合协调模型,对GRE-GSR耦合协调度进行了时序分析和空间探索性分析。【结果】中国大部分省份的粮食储备能力基本能够应对现有的粮食安全风险,但未达到较好水平,仍需着力加强粮食储备能力建设;中国整体粮食储备应对粮食安全风险的能力基本上逐年向好,各地区的粮食储备与安全风险的耦合协调关系在空间分布上呈现东高西低的分化态势,西部区域将是中国粮食储备建设的重点。【结论】建议针对西部地区的仓储设施进行扩容,联合东南地区不同省域进行共同储备,同时加强东北至其他省域的粮食物流通道建设,从而提升中国粮食抗风险的能力。【Objective】Based on the analysis of China’s grain reserve goals and changes in production,supply and demand in the new period,the matching relationship between China’s provincial grain reserves and corresponding risks was analyzed from the perspective of the coupling and coordination of grain reserve and grain security risks.【Method】By constructing a coupling coordination model of provincial grain reserves(GRE)and grain security risks(GSR),time-series analysis and spatial exploratory analysis of the degree of GRE-GSR coupling coordination were carried out.【Result】The grain storage capacity of most provinces in China is basically able to cope with the existing grain security risks,but it is not at a good level.It is still necessary to strengthen the construction of grain storage capacity.China’s overall grain reserve guarantee ability to cope with grain security risks is basically improving year by year.The spatial distribution of the coupling and coordination relationship between grain reserves and grain security risks in various regions shows a trend of differentiation of being higher in the east and lower in the west.The western region will be the focus of China’s grain reserve construction.【Conclusion】It is recommended to expand the storage facilities in the western region,jointly reserve with different provinces in the southeast region,and strengthen the construction of grain logistics channels from the northeast to other provinces,so as to enhance China’s ability to resist grain security risks.

关 键 词：粮食储备 粮食安全风险 耦合协调 省域 

分 类 号：F329.9[经济管理—产业经济] S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]