浙江省森林碳汇潜力及经济价值研究  

Study on Forest Carbon Sink Potential and Economic Value in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：陈周光 龙飞[1] 祁慧博[1] Chen Zhouguang;Long Fei;Qi Huibo(College of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州311300

出　　处：《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》2022年第4期126-133,共8页journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473230,71803180);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ17G030009)。

摘　　要：基于浙江省2013-2019年的森林蓄积量数据,首先运用森林蓄积量扩展法估算了森林碳汇量;其次运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)估算了浙江省2020-2024年的森林碳汇潜力;最后则是综合运用造林成本法和市场价值法分别估算了对应年份的森林碳汇的经济价值。研究发现,浙江省的森林碳汇量从2013年的3.07亿吨增长到2024年的5.38亿吨;造林成本法估算的森林碳汇价值从790.7亿元增长到1 385.6亿元,而市场价值法的为43.69亿元增长到76.56亿元;当前浙江省的森林碳汇经济价值增速及占比有所降低。基于以上研究结果,文章认为应该积极引导森林抚育与间伐,加大中幼林抚育和改造力度;转变森林经营理念与管理模式;加强地区之间的合作与交流;积极培育新型林业科技人员;加快发展数字林业。Based on the forest volume data of Zhejiang province from 2013 to 2019,it firstly estimated the forest carbon sinks by using the forest volume expansion method;then estimated the forest carbon sink potential of Zhejiang province from 2020 to 2024 by using the grey prediction model GM(1,1);and finally estimated the economic value of forest carbon sinks in corresponding years by comprehensively using afforestation cost method and market value method.The study found that forest carbon sinks in Zhejiang province increased from 307 million tons in 2013 to 538 million tons in 2024;the forest carbon sink value calculated by afforestation cost method increased from 790.7 billion yuan to 138.56 billion yuan,while the market value method increased from4.369 billion yuan to 7.656 billion yuan;at present,the growth rate and proportion of forest carbon sink economic value in Zhejiang province had decreased.Based on the above research results,it was believed that forest tending and thinning should be actively guided,and efforts should be made to increase the tending and transformation of young and middle-aged forests;change forest management concept and management mode;strengthening cooperation and exchanges among regions;actively cultivated new forestry science and technology personnel;accelerated the development of digital forestry.

关 键 词：森林碳汇潜力 森林蓄积量扩展法 造林成本法 市场价值法 森林碳汇价值 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]