基于不同耦合模型的县域滑坡易发性评价对比分析——以四川普格县为例  

Comparison of landslide susceptibility assessment based on multiple hybrid models at county level:A case study for Puge County,Sichuan Province

作　　者：熊小辉[1,2] 汪长林 白永健 铁永波[1] 高延超[1] 李光辉[4] Xiaohui XIONG;Changlin WANG;Yongjian BAI;Yongbo TIE;Yanchao GAO;Guanghui LI(Chengdu Center,China Geological Survey,Chengdu,Sichuan 610081,China;Key Laboratory of Sedimentary Basin and Oil and Gas Resources,Ministry of Natural Resources,Chengdu,Sichuan 610081,China;South-West Dadi Enginerring Exploration Co.Ltd.,Chengdu,Sichuan 610072,China;Institute of Geophysics&Geomatics,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan,Hubei 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质调查局成都地质调查中心,四川成都610081 [2]自然资源部沉积盆地与油气资源重点实验室,四川成都610081 [3]四川省西南大地工程物探有限公司,四川成都610072 [4]中国地质大学(武汉)地球物理与空间信息学院,湖北武汉610059

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2022年第4期114-124,共11页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20190640);国家自然科学基金项目(U20A20110-01)。

摘　　要：为有效预测县域滑坡发生的空间概率,探索不同统计学耦合模型滑坡易发性定量评价结果的合理性和精度,以四川省普格县为研究对象。选取坡度、坡向、高程、工程地质岩组、断层和斜坡结构等6项孕灾因子作为评价指标体系,基于信息量模型(I)、确定性系数模型(CF)、证据权模型(WF)、频率比模型(FR)分别与逻辑回归模型(LR)耦合开展滑坡易发性评价。结果表明:各耦合模型评价结果和易发程度区划均是合理的,极高易发区主要分布于则木河、黑水河河谷两侧斜坡带,面积介于129.04~183.43 km^(2)(占比6.77%~9.62%),各模型评价精度依次为WF-LR模型(AUC=0.869)>I-LR模型(AUC=0.868)>CF-LR模型(AUC=0.866)>NFR-LR模型(AUC=0.858)。研究成果可为川西南山区县域滑坡易发性定量评估提供重要参考。In order to effectively predict the spatial probability of landslide occurrence at county scale,the quantitative evaluation and comparative study of landslide susceptibility were carried out based on different statistical coupling models in Puge County,Southwest Sichuan.Six evaluation factors including slope,slope direction,elevation,engineering geological rock group,distance from fault and slope structure are selected to construct the evaluation index system.Information model(I),certainty factor model(CF),weight of evidence model(WF)and frequency ratio model(FR)are coupled with logistic regression model(LR)respectively to conduct landslide susceptibility evaluation.The results show that the evaluation results of each coupled model and the zoning of susceptibility are reasonable.The extremely high susceptibility areas with 129.04−183.43 km^(2)(accounting for 6.77%−9.62%)are mainly distributed in the slope zones on both sides of Zemu River and Heishui River Valley.The evaluation accuracy decreases from WF-LR model(AUC=0.869),I-LR model(AUC=0.868),CF-LR model(AUC=0.866),to NFR-LR model(AUC=0.858).The research results can provide an important reference for the quantitative evaluation of county landslide susceptibility in mountainous areas of Southwest Sichuan.

关 键 词：滑坡易发性 信息量模型 确定性系数模型 证据权模型 频率比模型 逻辑回归模型 普格县 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]