农户种粮积极性影响因素分析——以Y县为例  

Analysis of Factors Affecting Farmers’Enthusiasm to Grow Grain——Take Y County as an Example

作　　者：马力[1] 李杭 MA Li;LI Hang

机构地区：[1]北华大学经济管理学院,吉林132000

出　　处：《北华大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第2期72-82,152,153,共13页Journal of Beihua University(Social Sciences)

摘　　要：农户种粮积极性是影响粮食产量及产值的重要因素,关涉我国粮食安全和农业可持续发展等关键问题。基于Y县272份种粮农户的问卷调查数据,运用二元logistic回归分析模型,从农户个体、家庭、市场、社会和区域特征五个方面探究农户种粮积极性影响因素。结果表明,与农户种粮积极性呈显著正相关的因素有农户对粮食市场价格满意度、农户对农资价格满意度、农户对农业补贴政策满意度、农户的家庭经营规模、农户对农业保险的保障能力评价;与农户种粮积极性呈显著负相关的因素有农户对加入合作社是否利于提高种粮效益评价、农户种粮投入占家庭总支出比重、农户所在乡镇近三年自然灾害发生次数。据此,应通过加大对粮食市场价格及农资价格的调控力度,提高农户的生产经营能力,完善农业补贴政策,提高农业保险保障能力等途径,有效调动农民种粮积极性。The enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain is an important factor affecting grain output and output value,which is related to the key issues of food security and sustainable development of agriculture in our country.Based on the survey data of 272 grain farmers in Y county,using binary logistic regression model,this paper probes into the factors influencing the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain from five aspects:individual,family,market,society and regional characteristics.The results show that the factors that have significant positive correlation with farmers’enthusiasm are farmers’satisfaction with grain market price,farmers’satisfaction with agricultural resource price,farmers’satisfaction with agricultural subsidy policy,farmers’family scale of operation,and farmers’satisfaction with agricultural insurance.The factors that significantly negatively correlated with farmers’willingness to grow grain were farmers’satisfaction with joining co-operatives,the proportion of farmers’input in total household expenditure,and the frequency of great famine in the villages and towns where farmers lived.Therefore,we should strengthen the regulation and control of the prices of grain market and agricultural materials,improve the production and management ability of farmers,perfect the agricultural subsidy policy,and improve the guarantee ability of agricultural insurance,effectively mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain.

关 键 词：农户 种粮积极性 粮食安全 二元LOGISTIC回归 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F224