基于条件Logit模型的定制公交乘客支付意愿研究  

Public willingness to pay for customized bus based on conditional logit model

作　　者：董翠 李遥 龙建成 陈一锴 DONG Cui;LI Yao;LONG Jiancheng;CHEN Yikai(School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学汽车与交通工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第8期1100-1106,1129,共8页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71904039);合肥工业大学科学前沿创新专项资助项目(PA2019GDQT0020)。

摘　　要：近年来,定制公交以“一人一座、一站直达”为主要优势进入公众视野。而目前中国城市定制公交开行线路较少、班次频率低,其吸引力尚缺。基于此,文章以乘客需求为导向,设计多出行情境离散选择试验,构建条件Logit模型,研究通勤、非通勤以及短、中、长距离出行情境下乘客对定制公交的接受意愿及支付意愿。研究发现:在通勤出行中,为缩短最后一公里步行距离,乘客平均支付意愿为6.35元;而在非通勤出行中乘客支付意愿仅为2.89元。就出行距离而言,短距离情境下乘客更关注下车后最后一公里步行距离以及乘车时间;而中长距离情境下,乘客愿意为乘车环境支付更高价格。该研究对于定制公交多元化推广应用具有借鉴参考价值。In recent years,customized bus has attracted public attention with the main advantages of“one seat for one person”and“direct arrivals without transferring”.At present,customized buses are faced with the problems of limited routes,low frequencies,and lack of attractiveness in major Chinese cities.On this basis,this research is oriented to passenger demand and designs discrete choice experiments under combined travel scenarios classified as commuting/non-commuting and short/medium/long distance.A conditional logit model is constructed to estimate passengers’willingness to accept and willingness to pay for customized bus.Results indicate that passengers are willing to pay 6.35 yuan to shorten the last kilometer walking distance in commuting trips,while the willingness to pay in non-commuting trips is only 2.89 yuan.In terms of scenarios of different travel distances,passengers in the short-distance travel scenario are more concerned about the last kilometer walking distance and in-vehicle time;and they are willing to pay a higher price for improving bus environment in the medium-and long-distance travel scenarios.The research outcomes are valuable for the diversified application of customized bus.

关 键 词：城市交通 支付意愿 条件Logit模型 定制公交 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]