基于分类效率识别的水资源承载能力三层次评价方法  

Improved three-level water resources carrying capacity method based on classification of water use efficiency

作　　者：游进军[1] 蔡露瑶 林鹏飞[1] 王彦兵 谢纪强 YOU Jinjun;CAI Luyao;LIN Pengfei;WANG Yanbing;XIE Jiqiang(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Water Conservancy Dispatching Center,Yinchuan 750010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]宁夏回族自治区水利调度中心,银川750010

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第4期631-642,共12页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52079143);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407705);河北省重点研发计划项目(21374201D)。

摘　　要：针对现有的水资源承载能力三层次评价方法以万元GDP产业用水量表达综合用水效率对农业用水影响考虑不足的问题,提出以二、三产业单位增加值综合用水量分析可承载经济规模,改进计算流程,推导直接计算可承载人口数量的公式,避免原有试算过程,更准确地反映产业结构变化对用水效率的影响,适应“四水四定”(以水定城、以水定地、以水定人、以水定产)新要求,提高评价结果的合理性。以宁夏为例开展应用分析,按照农业用水保持现状不变,在全面小康水平下改进方法计算的可承载人口数量为903.7万人,相对现有方法可多承载140.2万人,在基本现代化水平下可承载人口数量降低至681.5万人,相对现有方法少承载90万人。结合宁夏实际情况设定不同情景,分析农业用水量、人均GDP、产业用水效率三者变化对结果的影响。按“四水四定”目标大幅压减水稻面积使农业用水量降低22%后,可承载人口提高118%,表明农业用水管控目标对承载能力影响显著。改进方法揭示农业用水量、非农用水效率、发展水平和承载能力的量化关系和作用机制,可为提高区域水资源承载能力决策提供依据。Current three-level water resources carrying capacity analysis method is not accurate enough to calculate the comprehensive water use efficiency,which is greatly affected by agriculture due to its high-proportion of water use and low water use efficiency.It is difficult to truly reflect the water use efficiency changes of other high-efficiency industries.Under such mode of analysis,It is highly possible that water for agriculture is occupied by other industries,which is not in line with the principle of"water dominates land"and relevant policies for food safety.Therefore,in order to guarantee agricultural water demand and more accurately describe the water use efficiency changes in light of the characteristics of regional industries,agricultural water demand is analyzed separately,thus the bearable economic scale is figured out by water consumption per unit added value of secondary and tertiary industries and the available water resources with deduction of agricultural water demand.Further derivation of the calculation formula simplifies the calculation process,eliminates the need for checking and iterative calculation,and improves the accuracy of results.Through the formula and adjustment of parameters,the influence of regional industrial characteristics on carrying capacity can be reflected more accurately.In the case study of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,which has a high proportion of agricultural water consumption,the water use efficiency and industrial proportion were confirmed for calculation of water carrying capacity by two carrying levels of comprehensive well-off society and basic modernization.The population and economic scale that regional water resources can support in different carrying levels were calculated by the original method and improved method respectively.The results showed that the bearable population decreased by the improved method,while basically remained unchanged by the original method.The reason was that the agricultural water demand did not change in the calculation of the improved

关 键 词：水资源承载能力 三层次评价法 用水效率 宁夏 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]