2015—2019年全国肺结核时空分布特征及影响因素空间面板数据分析  

Application of spatial panel data model in the analysis of national tuberculosis surveillance data from 2015 to 2019

作　　者：孙亚红 田茂再 聂艳武 杨振 张利萍[2] SUN Ya-hong;TIAN Mao-zai;NIE Yan-wu;YANG Zhen;ZHANG Li-ping(College of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 830017,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐830017 [2]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院,省部共建中亚高发病成因与防治国家重点实验室

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2022年第6期436-441,共6页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重点实验室开放课题(SKL-HIDCA-2020-9);国家自然科学基金(72163033;72064036;72174175)。

摘　　要：目的运用空间计量模型探讨肺结核发病影响因素,为相应政策制定提供参考。方法通过全国2015—2019年肺结核监测数据建立面板数据的空间回归模型,寻找肺结核发病的相关影响因素。结果根据Hausman Test检验和拉格朗日乘数检验(LM test)的检验结果,选择空间滞后固定效应面板数据模型进行回归分析。进一步根据时间和空间不同维度进行模型拟合,结果显示,空间滞后模型中时间固定效应(R^(2)=0.473)拟合效果最好,该模型发现人口密度(P=0.036)、SO_(2)(P<0.01)、O_(3)(P<0.01)、NO_(2)(P=0.017)、PM_(2.5)(P=0.017)、卫生技术人员(P=0.001)、注册护士(P<0.01)对肺结核发病率的影响均差异具有统计学意义。结论全国肺结核发病风险存在空间聚集性与地区差异,考虑到发病数据的时空属性,空间面板数据模型能够在公共卫生领域具有广泛应用价值。Objective To explore the influencing factors of pulmonary tuberculosis(TB)by using spatial econ-ometric model and to provide reference for related policy making.Methods The spatial regression model of panel data was established based on the national tuberculosis monitoring data from 2015to 2019,and the opti-mal model was selected by Hausman test and lagrange multiplier test(LM test)and was used to locate the in-fluencing factors of TB.Results Based on the results of Hausman test and LM test,the spatial lag fixed effect panel data model was selected for regression analysis.The model was further fitted according to different spatio-temporal dimensions,the results showed that the fitting effect of time fixed effect(R^(2)=0.473)was the best in the spatial lag model.The model found that population density(P=0.036),SO_(2)(P<0.01),O_(3)(P<0.01),NO_(2)(P=0.017),PM_(2.5)(P=0.017),health technical personnel(P=0.001)and registered nurses(P<0.01)had statistically significant effects on the incidence rate of tuberculosis.Conclusions Spa-tial panel data model has unique advantages and good application value in the analysis of infectious disease sur-veillance data.

关 键 词：肺结核 空间计量经济学 传统面板数据 空间面板数据 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]