双碳背景下京津冀物流业碳排放脱钩及影响因素研究  

Decoupling of carbon emissions and influencing Factors of logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

作　　者：李健[1,2] 白子毅 李柏桐 LI Jian

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院 [2]天津理工大学循环经济研究院

出　　处：《城市问题》2022年第5期69-76,共8页Urban Problems

基　　金：天津市科技计划项目(21ZLZKZF00290)——“天津市碳达峰碳中和科技创新行动方案研究”。

摘　　要：采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会提供的碳排放计算公式,选取京津冀2004—2019年物流业8种能源消耗进行碳排放量测算,运用Tapio脱钩模型和碳排放强度分析了物流业碳排放量与产业增加值的关系,并对京津冀物流业碳排放驱动因素进行LMDI分解。结果显示,近15年来,京津冀物流业碳排放量趋势由快速增长转为缓慢增长,年均增长率为11.91%;京津冀物流业碳排放和产业增长整体呈弱脱钩状态;分解后的经济产出效应、人口规模效应、能源结构效应对物流业的碳排放都起到拉升作用,能源强度效应则起到抑制作用。Using the calculation formula for carbon emissions provided by IPCC,8 types of energy consumption in the logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2004 to 2019 were selected to measure carbon emissions,and the Tapio decoupling model and carbon emission intensity were used to analyze the carbon emissions and industrial growth of the logistics industry.Then the LMDI decomposition of the driving factors of carbon emissions in the logistics industry of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is carried out.The results show that in the past 15 years,the trend of carbon emissions in the logistics industry of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has changed from rapid growth to slow growth,with an average annual growth rate of 11.91%.The economic output effect,population scale effect,and energy structure effect all play a role in increasing the carbon emissions of the logistics industry,while the energy intensity effect plays a restraining role.

关 键 词：京津冀 物流业 碳排放 LMDI因素分解 

分 类 号：F259.22[经济管理—国民经济]