东南沿海地区木兰溪流域气象干旱与水文干旱传播时间分析  

Analysis of Propagation Time of Meteorological Drought and Hydrological Drought of Mulan River Basin in Southeast Coastal Area

作　　者：刘勇[1] 余志明 许海婷 朱永华[1] 吕海深[1,2] 刘梦茹 邹清水 LIU Yong;YU Zhiming;XU Haiting;ZHU Yong-hua;LV Hai-shen;LIU Meng-ru;ZOU Qing-shui(School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Enginecring,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Minjiang Estuary Hydrological Experimental Station,Fujian Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Fuzhou 350000,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]福建省水文水资源勘测局闽江河口水文实验站,福建福州300000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第8期5-8,78,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41830752,42071033);国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510504)。

摘　　要：研究气象干旱和水文干旱的传播时间,有助于流域建立关于两种干旱类型之间的预报预警系统,从而降低干旱风险。以木兰溪流域为例,采用干旱发生率、线性趋势分析干旱特征,并基于交叉小波和交叉相位角探讨干旱的相关性和传播时间。结果表明,全流域春季干旱加重,上游上半年干旱加重,上游年内干旱加重;月尺度上气象干旱滞后发生了6次,出现在上游的2、6月、中游的7、10月、下游的6、7月,季尺度上发生了1次,出现在下游的春季,半年和年尺度上未发生。可见流域干旱季节性明显,春季干旱严重程度较高;干旱空间性较强,上游干旱严重程度较高;传播时间与研究的时间尺度有较强的相关性,短时间尺度会出现气象干旱滞后于常规起始时间的情况,但随着时间尺度增加,气象干旱会始终领先水文干旱发生。To study the propagation time of meteorological drought and hydrological drought is helpful to establish a prediction and early warning system between the two drought types,so the drought risk can be reduced.The characteristics of drought were analyzed by using drought incidence and linear trend.The correlation and propagation time of drought were discussed by using cross wavelet and cross phase angle.The drought in Mulanxi River Basin increased in spring,in the first half of the year in the upper reaches and in the year in the upper reaches.On the monthly scale,the meteorological drought lag occurred six times,in February and June of the upstream,July and October of the midstream,June and July of the downstream,once on the seasonal scale,in spring of the downstream,and not on the semi-annual and annual scales.The drought in Mulanxi basin is seasonal,and the severity of drought is high in spring.Drought has strong spatial characteristics,and the severity of drought in the upper reaches is high.The propagation time has a strong correlation with the time scale of the study.In a short time scale,the meteorological drought will lag behind the conventional starting time,but with the increase of time scale,the meteorological drought will always lead the hydrological drought.

关 键 词：气象干旱 水文干旱 传播时间 交叉小波 交叉相位角 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P49[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV11