广西极端降水空间分布特征及重现期分析  

Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Recurrence Period Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Guangxi

作　　者：孙桂凯[1,2,3,4] 马龙 王熙财 黄瑞[1,2,3,4] 王蕾 杜媞 莫崇勋[1,2,3,4] SUN Gui-kai;MA Long;WANG Xi-cai;HUANG Rui;WANG Lei;DU Ti;MO Chong-xun(College of Civil Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning,530004,China;Guangxi Provincial Engineering Research Center of Water Security and Intelligent Control for Karst Region,Guangxi University,Nanning,530004,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Struetural Safety of Ministry of Education,Nanning 530004,China;Guangxi Key Laboralory of Disasler Prevention and Engineering Safety,Nanning 530004,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学广西壮族自治区水安全与智慧调控工程研究中心,广西南宁530004 [3]工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [4]广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第8期9-12,31,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51969004);广西自然科学基金项目(2017GXNSFAA198361);广西研究生教育创新计划项目(YCBZ2019022)。

摘　　要：为了解广西极端降水的变化规律,分析不同地区不同重现期的极端降水量,通过峰度法、百分位法和年交叉率法选取合适阈值,选用极大似然估计法估计参数,采用广义帕累托分布(GPD)模拟分析各站点的日极端降水量。结果表明,选择99%分位数时阈值最为合理,且各站点的超阈值序列均通过ADF平稳性检验,拟合效果显著。通过分析各站点尺度参数和形状参数,发现两者数值大小为负相关,且各站点尺度参数在空间上表现为由东南沿海向西北内陆先递减后增加。通过比较各站点不同重现期较5年重现期增长率,发现其数值大小也由东南沿海向西北内陆先减小后递增。可以得出GPD分布对广西地区极端降水的模拟具有一定的合理性。In order to understand the variation pattern of extreme precipitation in Guangxi and analyze the extreme precipitation in different areas with different recurrence periods,suitable thresholds were selected by kurtosis method,percentile method and annual cross-rate method.The parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method,and Generalized Pareto distribution(GPD)was used to simulate the daily extreme precipitation at each station.The results show that the threshold value is most reasonable at the 99%quantile,the suprathreshold series of each station pass the ADF smoothness test,and the fitting effect is significant.By analyzing the scale and shape parameters of each site,it was found that the magnitude of the two values were negatively correlated,and the magnitude of the scale parameters of each site showed a decreasing and then increasing spatially from the southeast coast to the northwest inland.By comparing the growth rate of each site in different recurrence periods with the 5-year recurrence period,it was found that the numerical magnitude also decreases and then increases from the southeast coast to the northwest inland.It can be concluded that the GPD distribution is reasonable for the simulation of extreme precipitation in Guangxi region.

关 键 词：极端降水 广义帕累托分布 阈值 重现期 分布特征 

分 类 号：P458.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]