泾惠渠灌区水资源供需预测及供水风险评价  

Water Resources Supply and Demand Prediction and Water Supply Risk Assessment in Jinghui Canal Irrigation Area

作　　者：赵晓涛 ZHAO Xiao-tao(Shaanxi Jinghui Canal Irigation Administration,Xianyang 713800,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西省泾惠渠灌溉管理中心,陕西咸阳713800

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第8期54-57,197,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：兵团财政科技计划项目(2021AA003)。

摘　　要：为分析泾惠渠灌区水资源供需平衡,依据泾惠渠灌区近60年(1960~2019年)实测水文资料,分别以2019、2025年为现状水平年和规划水平年,在保证率分别为50%、75%时对水文年灌溉需用水量、灌区工业和生活需用水量进行平衡分析并进一步评估供水能力风险。结果表明,规划水平年2025年泾惠渠灌区灌溉需水量显著低于现状水平年2019年灌溉需水量,灌区总需水量减少6.5%;50%保证率下灌区供水量可满足用水需求,但在75%保证率下呈缺水状态。供水可靠性指标均值为94.10%,灌区供水可靠性较高;协调性指标均值为68.36%,协调性较高;弹性系数指标均值为9.35%,脆弱性均值为0.47%,供水弹性和脆弱性较低;日最大缺水率指标均值为62.21%,日最大缺水率较高。总体来看,在2025年规划水平年条件下泾惠渠灌区的供水保证程度较高,供水风险较弱。In order to analyze the water resources balance of supply and demand in Jinghui Canal Irrigation District,based on the 60-year observed hydrological data from 1960-2019,2019 and 2025 were selected as the current level year and the planned level year respectively.The balance of the annual hydrological water demand for irrigation,industrial and domestic water demand in the irrigation district were analyzed under the guarantee rate of 50%and 75%,and the risk of water supply capacity was evaluated.The results show that the irrigation water consumption dropped by 6.5%in 2025 compared to 2019 in the irrigation district.Water supply in irrigation area can meet the water demand under the guarantee rate of 50%,but it was lack of water under the guarantee rate of 75%.Water supply reliability is high,and the average dependability index reaches 94.10%.The coordination is higher with the average coordination index of 68.36%.The elasticity and vulnerability of water supply are lower with average elasticity index of 9.35%and average vulnerability index of 0.47%.The daily maximum water shortage rate is higher with an average of 62.21%.In general,under the condition of the 2025 planning level year,the water supply guarantee degree of the Jinghui Canal irrigation area is high,and the water supply risk is weak.

关 键 词：水资源 泾惠渠灌区 供需水预测 风险评价 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] S271[农业科学—农业水土工程]