社会保险降费政策促进就业了吗——基于在线招聘岗位数据的分析  

Did Social Security Fee Cuts Boost Employment?Empirical Evidence from Online Recruitment Data

作　　者：赵海珠 蔡卫星 罗连化 ZHAO Hai-zhu;CAI Wei-xing;LUO Lian-hua(School of Finance,Guangdong University of Finance&Economics,Guangzhou 510320,China)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学金融学院,广东广州510320

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2022年第4期56-70,共15页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AJY027);广东省自然科学基金项目(2018A0303100014)。

摘　　要：供给侧结构性改革以来,我国先后多次出台企业社保降费政策,以降低企业的成本负担、激发其活力,其中以2019年出台的《降低社会保险费率综合方案》的力度最大。利用2019年日度在线招聘岗位数据,以浙江省为控制组,以与浙江社会经济较为相似但企业养老保险缴费率受《方案》影响需要下调的江苏省为对照组,构建双重差分模型考察本次降费的就业效应。研究发现:综合方案的出台促进了在线招聘岗位数量的增加,产生了良好的就业促进作用,且该效应主要通过促进社会创业活动来实现;异质性分析表明,本次降费对无工作经验要求、低学历、低工资、非国有企业、缴费不规范行业的就业促进作用更加显著,对养老保险参保率低、财政实力弱、人口老龄化严重城市的就业促进作用更加显著。因此,降费有助于改善群体间、区域间的收入分配格局,从而推动共同富裕的实现。本研究为降低社会保险费率以激发企业活力、稳定社会就业提供了实证证据和启示。A number of policies for social insurance fee cuts have been implemented to lower corporate costs and to stimulate vitality ever since the structural reforms on the mitigation side started.“Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Insurance Rate”(Referred to as Comprehensive Plan)in 2019 promoted the maxi-mum cuts of corporate social insurance fee rate.The paper used data of daily online recruitment in 2019 and constructed a DID model to investigate the employment effects of the Comprehensive Plan by taking Zhejiang province as the control group and Jiangsu province as the treatment group,for the two provinces are economi-cally and socially similar and Jiangsu's employer old-age insurance rate needs to be lowered as a result of the Comprehensive Plan whereas Zhejiang does not need to.It is found that the Comprehensive Plan promoted the expansion of recruitment agencies and have positive employment effects;the positive employment effects are achieved by promoting social entrepreneurship activities.The results of heterogeneity analysis prove that the Comprehensive Plan has a more significant role in promoting recruitment of no-work-experience-require-ments,lower education,lower wages,and irregular payment industry,and in promoting jobs in cities with low pension insurance participation rates,weaker financial strength,and serious aging populations.The findings of this research reflect fee cuts help to improve the income distribution pattern between groups and regions,and are beneficial to promote the realization of common wealth.This study provides empirical evi-dence and enlightenment for lowering social insurance fee rate to stimulate enterprise vitality and stabilize so-cial employment.

关 键 词：社会保障制度 社会保险费 养老保险 降费政策 就业效应 在线招聘 《降低社会保险费率综合方案》 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险] F241.4