经济周期与贸易政策——基于美国对外反倾销的实证分析  

Business Cycle and Trade Policy:An Empirical Study Based on U.S.Antidumping

作　　者：王孝松[1] 李彤 WANG Xiao-song;LI Tong(Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《苏州大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2022年第4期107-120,共14页Journal of Soochow University(Philosophy & Social Science Edition)

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金项目“全球贸易保护史”(项目编号:20XNLG04)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在中美贸易摩擦加剧的背景下,美国贸易政策转向保护的现象引发关注,美国贸易政策通常对经济周期呈现一定的逆周期特征,经济衰退和贸易保护往往相伴而生。基于美国对外反倾销以及一些宏观经济变量,从经济周期的角度出发,考察贸易政策制定背后的各项影响因素。将宏观经济变量中的周期性成分引入模型,并考虑经济危机对贸易保护的影响,并在行业层面上分析不同行业对宏观经济因素冲击的反应。分析结果表明,贸易政策的决策过程的确受经济波动的周期性影响,当美国经济处于衰退期时,往往会实行倾向保护程度高的贸易政策。在中美贸易摩擦的背景下,认识其贸易政策的周期性可以帮助我国对美国可能采取的贸易政策进行预判,并寻找应对之法。Under the background of the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions,the swing of US trade policy has aroused concern.Trade policy usually presents a certain counter-cyclical nature to the economic cycle,and the economic recession and trade protection often come together.Based on the information of American foreign anti-dumping and some macroeconomic variables,this paper examines the factors behind trade policy from the perspective of economic cycle.In this paper,the cyclical components of economic variables are introduced into the model,the impact of economic crisis on trade protection is considered,and the response of different industries to the impact of macroeconomic factors is analyzed at the industry level.The results show that the decision-making process of trade policy is indeed affected by the periodicity of economic fluctuations.When the economy of U.S.is in recession,it tends to release trade policies with the high degree of protection.In the context of Sino-US trade frictions,understanding the periodicity of its trade policy can help us to predict the possible trade policy adopted by the United States and find ways to deal with it.

关 键 词：经济周期 贸易政策周期 反倾销 HP滤波 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]