农机服务·农村劳动力转移与农民收入--基于农户经营规模分组的PVAR模型分析  

Agricultural Machinery Service,Rural Labor Transfer and Farmers’Income-Analysis of PVAR Model Based on Grouping of Farmers’Operating Scale

作　　者：刘成 胡禾 杨雪 唐晶 冯中朝[4] LIU Cheng;HU He;YANG Xue(Institute of Rural Economics,Hubei Academy of Social Sciences,Wuhan,Hubei 430070;School of Science,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin,Guangxi 541000;Business School of Huanggang Normal University,Huang-gang,Hubei 438000)

机构地区：[1]湖北省社会科学院农村经济研究所,湖北武汉430070 [2]桂林理工大学理学院,广西桂林541000 [3]黄冈师范学院商学院,湖北黄冈438000 [4]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2022年第16期173-178,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家“现代农业产业技术体系建设”专项(CARS-0012)。

摘　　要：基于促进农民收入增长的目标,分析农机服务、劳动力转移以及农民收入增长三者间关系,并同时纳入不同农户经营规模条件进行分组讨论。考虑到3种变量可能是互为因果关系,构建农机服务、农村劳动力转移与农民收入增长的分析框架,采用PVAR模型分析三者之间的动态影响关系,借用省级面板数据,来验证三者之间的变化关系。结果显示,农机服务是劳动力转移的Granger原因,说明农机服务对劳动力转移具有一定贡献度,此外,大规模区域的粮食农机服务对劳动力转移的贡献度为3.7%,小规模区域为1.1%,说明这种影响关系,在大规模区域与小规模区域之间存在显著差异,大规模区域的农机服务对劳动力转移方差贡献率,明显大于小规模区域,这可能是由于服务规模化并不足以完全替代土地的规模化,其作用大小恰恰会依赖于土地经营规模的发展状况。由此得出政策启示:在推崇服务规模化过程中,不能完全忽视土地规模化发展,反而需要增加二者协调互促,从而更有助于推动农民收入增长。Based on the goal of farmers’income growth,this article aims to analyze the relationship among agricultural machinery services,labor transfer,and farmers’income growth,and at the same time include group discussions of different farmer households’scale of operations.Taking into account that the three variables may be mutually causal,this paper constructs an analysis framework for agricultural machinery services,rural labor transfer and farmers’income growth,uses the PVAR model to analyze the dynamic impact relationship between the three,and uses provincial panel data to verify the changing relationship of the three.The estimation results show that agricultural machinery service is the Granger reason for labor transfer,indicating that agricultural machinery service has a certain contribution to labor transfer.In ad-dition,the contribution of food and agricultural machinery service to labor transfer in largescale areas is 3.7%,and 1.1%for smallscale areas.This shows that there is a significant difference between the largescale area and the smallscale area.The contribution rate of the agricultural machinery service to the labor transfer variance in the largescale area is significantly greater than that of the smallscale area.This may be be-cause the scale of services is not a substitute for the scale of land Instead,its size will depend on the development of the scale of land manage-ment.From this,the policy enlightenment we can draw that in the process of advocating service scale,we cannot completely ignore the larges-cale development of land.Instead,we need to increase the coordination and mutual promotion of the two,so as to help promote the growth of farmers’income.

关 键 词：PVAR模型 农机服务 土地规模 农民收入 

分 类 号：F304[经济管理—产业经济]