改扩建高速公路交通量分析及预测研究  

Traffic volume analysis and forecast of expressway during reconstruction and expansion

作　　者：李徐义 LI Xuyi(China Railway SIYUAN Survey and Design Group Co.,Ltd WuHan 430063)

机构地区：[1]中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司交通院,武汉430063

出　　处：《铁道勘测与设计》2022年第4期64-67,共4页Railway Survey and Design

摘　　要：近年来,随着国家对基础设施投资力度的不断加大,我国高速公路市场发展十分迅猛。交通量分析预测是高速公路项目工程可行性研究的关键环节,预测的准确性直接影响了项目的最终决策。本文以湖南某改扩建高速公路为例,在充分考虑高速公路、国省道、诱增、港口转移交通量因素基础上,建立不同的预测模型,从而更加全面、准确的预测项目的交通量,为其他改扩建高速公路工程提供借鉴。In recent years,with the country’s increasing investment in infrastructure,my country’s expressway market has developed rapidly.Traffic volume forecasting is a key link in the feasibility study of expressway projects,and the accuracy of forecasting directly affects the final decision of the project.Taking a highway in Hunan as an example,this thesis establishes different prediction models on the basis of fully considering the factors of expressway,national and provincial highway,induced increase and port transfer traffic,so as to predict the traffic volume of this project more comprehensively and accurately.Provide reference for other expressway projects.

关 键 词：高速公路 交通量预测 OD数据 

分 类 号：U41[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]