基于系统动力学的尾流遭遇人—管系统风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Wake Encountering Man-management System Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：江艳军 郑思睿 潘卫军[2] JIANG Yanjun;ZHENG Sirui;PAN Weijun(CAAC North China Regional Administration,Beijing 100020;Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618300)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空华北地区空中交通管理局,北京100020 [2]中国民用航空飞行学院,广汉618300

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2022年第7期121-125,147,共6页Ship Electronic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:U1733203);民航安全能力建设SA(编号:TM2018-9-1/3,TM2019-16-1/3)资助。

摘　　要：为研究尾流遭遇风险系统中人—管子系统中各影响因素间的交互机制,分析不同要素的变化对尾流事故风险的影响,基于系统动力学(SD)理论,运用Vensim软件构建系统化尾流遭遇风险动态分析模型,为剖析管理对于事故风险的影响,论文将系统划分为飞行员、管制员—管理两子系统,构建因果关系图及系统动态流图,选取不同影响要素作为政策调节变量并进行调节,辨析各风险因素对系统安全性的影响。研究表明分别施加相同程度政策干预时,两子系统使尾流事故风险水平分别降低了5.52%、3.38%,同时施加干预后尾流事故风险水平降低了9.51%。In order to study the interaction mechanism between the influencing factors in the man-tube subsystem in the wake encounter risk system,and analyze the impact of the changes of different elements on the risk of wake accident,based on the theory of system dynamics(SD),the systematic wake encounter risk dynamic analysis model is constructed by using Vensim software.In order to analyze the impact of management on the accident risk,the system is divided into pilot,controller-management subsys⁃tem,the causality diagram and the system dynamic flow map are constructed,and different influencing elements are selected as pol⁃icy adjustment variables and adjusted to identify the impact of various risk factors on system security.Studies have shown that when the same degree of policy intervention is applied,the risk level of wakeover accidents in the two subsystems is reduced by 5.52%and 3.38%,respectively,and the risk level of wake accidents after the intervention is applied by 9.51%.

关 键 词：尾流 系统动力学 风险分析 系统安全工程 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]