基于系统动力学的沈阳市工业碳排放研究  

A Study on Industrial Carbon Emissions in Shenyang City Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：蒋雪娇 佟岩[1] 张景欣 Jiang Xuejiao;Tong Yan;Zhang Jingxin(School of Economics,Shenyang University,Shenyang Liaoning 110041)

机构地区：[1]沈阳大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110041

出　　处：《现代工业经济和信息化》2022年第7期5-8,共4页Modern Industrial Economy and Informationization

摘　　要：在国家大力号召碳达峰、碳中和背景下,沈阳市作为中国重要的装备制造业基地和国家第三批低碳试点城市,在能源消耗和环境保护方面正面临着严峻的挑战。在立足沈阳市工业能源消费量和工业碳排放现状的基础上,从系统动力学视角出发,构建沈阳市工业能源消费和工业碳排放系统动力学模型,并以国家制定的新型碳排放目标为依据,设定三种不同的低碳目标发展情景,分别为:情景1、情景2、情景3。通过对比三种不同的发展情景,进而有针对性地对沈阳市工业实现低碳经济发展提出合理可行的对策建议。仿真结果显示:在多因子共同影响作用下,情景3和情景2均优于情景1,情景2和情景3在时间上较早实现碳减排目标,说明通过优化能源结构、加大R&D经费投入可以有效地推动沈阳市实现低碳发展目标。In the context of the national call for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,Shenyang,as an important equipment manufacturing base in China and the third batch of national low-carbon pilot cities,is facing severe challenges in energy consumption and environmental protection.Based on the current situation of industrial energy consumption and industrial carbon emission in Shenyang,a system dynamics model of industrial energy consumption and industrial carbon emission in Shenyang is constructed from the perspective of system dynamics,and three different development scenarios of low carbon target are set based on the new carbon emission target set by the state,namely scenario 1,scenario 2 and scenario 3.By comparing the three different development scenarios,we can then By comparing the three scenarios,reasonable and feasible countermeasures are proposed to achieve low carbon economic development in Shenyang.The simulation results show that both Scenario 3 and Scenario 2 outperform Scenario 1 under the combined influence of multiple factors,and that Scenarios 2 and 3 achieve the carbon emission reduction target earlier in time,indicating that optimizing the energy structure and increasing R&D investment can effectively promote the achievement of low-carbon development in Shenyang.

关 键 词：工业碳排放 系统动力学 低碳经济 能源结构 R&D经费投入 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F224.68