基于CORDEX区域气候模式的大渡河流域径流模拟  

Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models

作　　者：潘张榕 郭军红 付正辉 王书航[2] 李薇 陈卓 卿会 PAN Zhangrong;GUO Junhong;FU Zhenghui;WANG Shuhang;LI Wei;CHEN Zhuo;QING Hui(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;National Engineering Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control and Ecological Restoration,State Environment Protection Key Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学环境科学与工程学院,北京102206 [2]中国环境科学研究院,湖泊水污染治理与生态修复技术国家工程实验室,国家环境保护湖泊污染控制重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《人民珠江》2022年第8期54-62,77,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0208400)。

摘　　要：研究气候变化下大渡河流域的径流预测可有效提高未来该流域的水利资源利用率,为水电调度提供决策参考。首先利用逐步聚类算法对6套CORDEX区域气候模式1970—2005年数据进行校正和验证,模拟大渡河流域2030—2065年的气候变化趋势。之后建立了大渡河流域年尺度的SWAT(Soil&Water Assessment Tool)模型,使用SWAT-CUP对其进行率定和验证,最后以校正后的未来气象数据驱动SWAT模型,进行未来大渡河流域径流模拟。结果表明,在未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,该流域降水量变化幅度较小,最高温度、最低温度整体呈增长的趋势,未来径流将大致呈增加的趋势,且在2050年前后,径流波动趋势不一致。在2050年之前径流变化量较小,之后2种气候情景下的径流变化趋势明显变大,预报的不确定性也增加。Studying the prediction of the runoff in Dadu River Basin under climate changes can effectively improve the future utilization rate of the water resources in this basin and provide a reference for hydropower dispatching.Specifically,stepwise clustering analysis is performed to correct and verify the 1970—2005 data of six coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment(CORDEX)regional climate models and thereby simulated the climate change trend of Dadu River Basin during 2030—2065.Then,an annual-scale Soil&Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model of Dadu River Basin was built and calibrated and verified by SWAT-CUP.Finally,the corrected meteorological data of the future period were used to drive the SWAT model and ultimately to forecast the future runoff in Dadu River Basin.The results show that in this basin,precipitation will change slightly,and the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature will increase on the whole under future representative concentration pathway(RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The future runoff will roughly assume an increasing trend,and the runoff fluctuation trend before and after 2050 will be inconsistent.In other words,the runoff change is small before 2050,whereas the trend of runoff change under both scenarios becomes significantly larger,suggesting higher uncertainties in the prediction of the runoff in this basin.

关 键 词：气候变化 CORDEX SWAT 逐步聚类 径流模拟 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]