1990—2019年中国居民房颤发病和死亡趋势分析及预测  

Death trend and prediction of incidence and mortality of atrial fibrillation in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019

作　　者：周利慧 王媛[1] 李书[1] 侯亚冰 张馨予[1] 王耀刚[1] ZHOU Li-hui;WANG Yuan;LI Shu;HOU Ya-bing;ZHANG Xin-yu;WANG Yao-gang(School of Public Health,Tianjin Medical University,Tianjin 300070,China)

机构地区：[1]天津医科大学公共卫生学院,天津300070

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2022年第6期410-414,共5页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71910107004,71904142,71704131,91746205)。

摘　　要：目的 了解1990—2019年中国居民房颤发病及死亡趋势变化并进行预测,为房颤防治策略的制定提供科学依据。方法 采用全球疾病负担研究2019(GBD 2019)中1990—2019年中国30~49、50~64和65岁及以上不同性别人群房颤发病率和死亡率数据。采用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.7.0.0软件进行Joinpoint回归,分析不同性别、年龄组人群房颤标化发病率和标化死亡率的变化趋势,采用年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)评估发病率和死亡率的时间变化趋势。采用时间序列模型预测2020—2025年中国不同性别、年龄组人群房颤发病率和死亡率。结果2019年中国房颤粗发病率和粗死亡率分别为81.914/10万和3.638/10万。1990—2019年,各年龄组人群标化发病率整体呈上升趋势(30~49、50~64和65岁及以上年龄组人群AAPC分别为0.248%、0.254%和0.067%,P<0.01)。30~49、50~64岁年龄组人群房颤标化死亡率均呈下降趋势(AAPC分别为-1.086%和-1.101%,P<0.01);65岁及以上年龄组房颤标化死亡率趋势变化无统计学意义(AAPC=0.029%,P>0.05)。而男性65岁及以上年龄组房颤标化死亡率呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.451%,P<0.01)。时间序列结果显示,2020—2025年我国人群房颤粗发病率将呈上升或持平趋势,50~64岁人群房颤粗死亡率将呈下降趋势,而30~49和65岁及以上年龄组人群粗死亡率将呈上升趋势。结论 中国居民房颤发病率呈上升趋势,且65岁以上人群房颤死亡率也呈上升趋势。应重点降低房颤年轻化发病趋势,加强65岁以上人群的诊疗和健康管理。Objective To understand the death trend and prediction of incidence and mortality of atrial fibrillation(AF)in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019,and provide the scientific basis for developing the prevention and treatment strategies of AF.Methods The incidence and mortality of AF in different gender and age groups of 30-49,50-64 and 65 years old in China were obtained from the global burden of disease study 2019.Joinpoint Regression Program 4.7.0.0 software was used to perform Joinpoint regression analysis for the trend of standardized incidence and mortality of AF in different gender and age groups.The annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were used to evaluate the trend of incidence and mortality of AF.Time series model was used to predict the incidence and mortality of AF in different gender and age groups in China from 2020 to 2025.Results The crude incidence and mortality of AF were 81.914/105 and 3.638/105 in 2019.From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence in different age groups showed the upward trend(the AAPCs of 30-49,50-64 and 65 years old groups were 0.248%,0.254%and 0.067%,respectively,P<0.01).The standardized mortality of AF in 30-49 and 50-64 years old groups showed the downward trend(the AAPCs were-1.086%and-1.101%,respectively,P<0.01).The trend of AF standardized mortality in≥65 years old group showed no significant change(AAPC=0.029%,P>0.05).However,the AF standardized mortality of≥65 years old group in males showed upward trend(AAPC=0.451%,P<0.01).The results of time series showed that the crude AF incidence in Chinese from 2020 to 2025 showed upward trend or flat-ward,the crude AF mortality in Chinese 50-64 years old group from 2020 to 2025 showed downward trend,but the crude AF mortality in Chinese 30-49 or≥65 years old groups from 2020 to 2025 showed upward trend.Conclusion The AF incidence in Chinese showed upward trend,also the AF mortality in≥65 years old group showed upward trend.It is important to decrease the incidence trend in young Chinese

关 键 词：房颤 发病率 死亡率 趋势 预测 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]