纳入财政政策波动性的长短期政府支出乘数估算研究  

Estimation of Government Expenditure Multiplier with Considering the Volatility of Fiscal Policy

作　　者：王立勇[1] 徐晓莉 王宥然 Wang Liyong;Xu Xiaoli;Wang Youran

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院 [2]北京交通大学经济管理学院 [3]英国华威大学统计学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2022年第6期20-32,共13页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新常态下完善我国宏观调控目标体系与宏观调控机制研究”(15ZDA009);中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心2022年度科研立项资助课题“政策波动性的长期经济效果研究”。

摘　　要：本文在考虑财政政策波动性的条件下估算了长短期政府支出乘数、政府消费性支出乘数和政府投资性支出乘数。研究结果表明:中国政府支出存在较大波动性,波峰出现在2003年、2009年、2010年、2012年、2017年和2020年;财政政策波动性是财政政策调控的一种潜在成本和重要代价,显著降低了政府支出乘数。当考虑财政政策波动性时,长期政府支出乘数、政府消费性支出乘数和政府投资性支出乘数分别为1.099、0.688、1.373,当不考虑财政政策波动性时,长期乘数分别为1.304、0.810和1.455,即财政政策波动性使长期的政府支出乘数、政府消费性支出乘数和政府投资性支出乘数损失度分别达15.7%、15.1%和5.6%;财政政策波动性使短期的政府支出乘数、政府消费性支出乘数和政府投资性支出乘数损失度分别达10.7%、8.9%和9.9%。This paper estimates the long-term and short-term government expenditure multiplier,government consumption expenditure multiplier and government investment expenditure multiplier with considering volatility of China’s fiscal policy.The results show that there is great volatility in China’s government expenditure,with peaks in the years of 2003,2009,2010,2012,2017 and 2020;Fiscal policy volatility becomes a kind of potential and important cost of fiscal policy regulation.Fiscal policy volatility reduces the government expenditure multiplier:When considering the volatility of fiscal policy,the long-term government expenditure multiplier,government consumption expenditure multiplier and government investment expenditure multiplier are 1.099,0.688 and 1.373 respectively;On the contrary,the long-term multiplier is 1.304,0.810 and 1.455 respectively.So the volatility of fiscal policy makes the loss of long-term government expenditure multiplier,government consumption expenditure multiplier and government investment expenditure multiplier reach 15.7%,15.1% and 5.6%;The volatility of fiscal policy makes the loss of short-term government expenditure multiplier,government consumption expenditure multiplier and government investment expenditure multiplier reach 10.7%,8.9% and 9.9% respectively.

关 键 词：财政政策波动性 政府支出乘数 投资性支出 消费性支出 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]