基于蒙特卡洛的水下采油树本体安装工具结构可靠性分析方法  

A structural reliability analysis method of subsea Christmas tree running tool based on Monte Carlo

作　　者：顾纯巍 张崇 王莹莹[3] 李楠 李琳[3] GU Chunwei;ZHANG Chong;WANG Yingying;LI Nan;LI Lin(CNOOC China Limited,Beijing 100010,China;CNOOC China Limited,Hainan Branch,Haikou,Hainan 570100,China;Collegeof Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China;Offshore Oil Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300450,China)

机构地区：[1]中海石油(中国)有限公司,北京100010 [2]中海石油(中国)有限公司海南分公司,海南海口570100 [3]中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院,北京102249 [4]海洋石油工程股份有限公司,天津300450

出　　处：《中国海上油气》2022年第4期184-193,共10页China Offshore Oil and Gas

基　　金：国家工信部创新专项“水下油气生产系统工程化示范应用创新专项(编号:CCL2019ZJFN0851)”部分研究成果。

摘　　要：水下采油树本体安装工具是进行树体锁紧、下放与回收等操作的重要装备,水下采油树本体安装工具受力不均失效,易引起安装失败,甚至造成重大安全事故。分析计算了水下采油树本体安装工具在钻杆下放过程中受到的环境载荷,分别建立了安装工具锁紧和下放水下采油树工况的有限元模型,研究了锁紧状态和下放过程中安装工具的受力情况。根据蒙特卡洛抽样理论,进行了作业锁块、树体和驱动环对海流、温度、外压等3个环境参数的敏感性分析,形成了水下采油树本体安装工具的结构受力可靠性分析方法。本文研究结果可为中国水下采油树的自主研发与国产化应用提供参考。The running tool for the main body of subsea Christmas tree is an important equipment for tree locking,lowering and retrieving,and the running tool failure caused by unevenly stressed is prone to giving rise to the failed installation and even major safety accidents.The environmental loads on this tool while lowering the drill pipe were analyzed and calculated,and the finite element models for two scenarios of running tool locking and subsea Christmas tree lowering were established respectively to study the stresses on this tool for above scenarios.According to the Monte Carlo sampling theory,the sensitivity analysis of the locking block,tree body and driving ring against three environmental parameters of ocean current,temperature and external pressure is carried out,and appropriate analytical method is developed for the structural stress reliability of this running tool.The results of this study can provide a reference for the independent R&D and localization of domestic subsea Christmas trees.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛 水下采油树 钻杆下放 可靠性 

分 类 号：TE952[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]