含海上风电-光伏-储能的多能源发输电系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Multi-Energy Generation and Transmission System With Offshore Wind Power-Photovoltaic-Energy Storage

作　　者：高小童 秦志龙 高新宇 GAO Xiaotong;QIN Zhilong;GAO Xinyu(Jihongtan Reservoir Management Station,ShandongWater Diversion Project Operation and Maintenance Center,Qingdao 266111,Shandong Province,China;State Grid Qingdao Power Supply Company,Qingdao 266002,Shandong Province,China;School of Electric Engineering and Automation,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,Anhui Province,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省调水工程运行维护中心棘洪滩水库管理站,山东省青岛市266111 [2]国网青岛供电公司,山东省青岛市266002 [3]合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院,安徽省合肥市230009

出　　处：《发电技术》2022年第4期626-635,共10页Power Generation Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51607051)。

摘　　要：风光荷相关性模型是准确评估海上风电-光伏-储能并网系统可靠性的基础。为解决高维风光荷相关性建模问题,提出了一种基于藤结构的混合时变Copula模型。通过结合实际海上风电场功率、光伏电站功率、电网负荷,建立了8种风光荷联合Copula模型,运用2个常用的最优模型评价准则,判断出所提Copula模型比其他模型更有优势。选取山东省风电场和光伏电站的实际功率数据,在含风电场和光伏电站的IEEE-RTS79系统中分析比较8组模型,结果表明:所提Copula模型可以更为准确地描述高维风光荷间相依结构,而其他模型则会低估风光荷三者间相关性对系统可靠性的影响。在测试系统加入储能电站后,其他模型在最优风光装机容量比例的选择、储能电站容量的选取、功率波动性的评价等方面也均存在偏差。The wind-solar-load correlation model is the basis for accurately evaluating the reliability of offshore wind power-photovoltaic-energy storage grid connected system. To solve the problem of high-dimensional wind-solar-load correlation modeling, a hybrid time-varying Copula model based on vine structure was proposed. By combining the actual wind farm output, photovoltaic power station output and grid load data, eight wind-solar-load combined Copula models were established, and the proposed model had more advantages than other models by using two common evaluation criteria of optimal model. Taking the measured data of wind farms and photovoltaic stations in Shandong province as examples, eight groups of models were analyzed and compared in IEEE-RTS79 system with wind farms and photovoltaic stations. The results show that the proposed Copula function model can more accurately describe the multi-dimensional wind-solar-load correlation. However,other existing models underestimate the impact of the windsolar-load correlation on system reliability. After adding the energy storage device to the test system, other models also have deviations in the selection of the optimal wind-solar installed capacity ratio, the selection of storage power station capacity and the evaluation of power fluctuation.

关 键 词：海上风电 风光储系统 可靠性评估 藤结构 混合时变Copula函数 

分 类 号：TK019[动力工程及工程热物理]