基于联合均值与方差模型的碳排放权影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions Trading Based on Joint Mean and Variance Model

作　　者：董洋 王丹璐 刘俊伯 吴刘仓[2] DONG Yang;WANG Danlu;LIU Junbo;WU Liucang(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China;Faculty of Science,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China;City College,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093 [2]昆明理工大学理学院,云南昆明650093 [3]昆明理工大学城市学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第9期21-28,36,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“混合型偏态数据下均值、中位数和众数回归模型的统计推断与算法研究”(11861041);国家自然科学基金项目“复杂数据下联合均值与方差模型的统计推断”(11261025)。

摘　　要：碳达峰和碳中和背景下,研究碳排放权价格对我国制定节能减排的宏观经济政策、相关金融机构开展碳金融业务、减排企业及个人投资者提供决策等均产生有利影响。论文应用统计模型和机器学习分析碳排放权金融数据,选取碳排放权交易影响指标,包括能源价格、经济发展水平、国家碳市场指标、天气环境、传统金融市场因素等五个方面的指标,对湖北碳排放权交易建立统计模型进行探究分析,影响湖北碳排放权投资收益高低的中证100指数指标具有正向影响,影响湖北碳排放权投资风险的汇率、汽油价格两个指标为负向影响。结论可以供投资者决策参考。Under the Carbon peak and Carbon neutral background,the research on the price of carbon emission permits has a favorable impact on the formulation of macroeconomic policies for energy conservation and emission reduction,the development of carbon finance business by relevant financial institutions,and the decision-making provided by emission reduction enterprises and individual investors.This paper uses statistical model and machine learning to analyze carbon emission financial data,and to explore and analyze the statistical model of carbon emission trading in Hubei Province by selecting five indicators of carbon emission trading,including energy price,economic development level,national carbon market indicators,weather environment,and traditional financial market factor.Through the model,we know that the CSI 100 index has a positive impact on the investment income of carbon emission right in Hubei Province,and has a negative impact on the exchange rate and gasoline price in the investment risk of carbo emission right in Hubei Province.The conclusion can be used as a reference for investors.

关 键 词：碳排放权 灰色关联分析 联合均值与方差模型 随机森林 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]