喀斯特山地旅游生态系统安全评价及趋势预测--以贵州国际山地旅游目的地为考察样本  

Evaluation and Trend Forecast of Tourism Ecological Security in Karst Mountainous Areas:Taking International Mountain Tourism Destination of Guizhou Province as an Investigation Sample

作　　者：李锦宏[1] 曾雪 曹庆瑶 姬杨 LI Jinhong;ZENG Xue;CAO Qingyao;JI Yang(College of Tourism and Cultural Industry,Guizhou University,Guiyang Guizhou 550000,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学旅游与文化产业学院,贵州贵阳550000

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第9期145-151,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划重大课题“生态文明的‘贵州实践’研究”(19GZZB02)。

摘　　要：为深入了解喀斯特山地旅游区生态安全状态及变化趋势,以贵州省为考察样本,基于DPSIR模型构建评价体系,采用2001—2019年的数据,分别利用熵权法改进的TOPSIS法和径向基(RBF)神经网络进行评价和预测。研究表明:21世纪以来,山地旅游生态安全综合指数呈波动上升趋势,随着时间推移,山地旅游区生态安全状况明显好转;从各维度来看,驱动力、压力维度生态安全指数在19年间先上升、后下降,状态维度反之,影响和响应维度生态安全指数总体上升幅度大;2020—2025年,若不发生重大环境污染事故,贵州省山地旅游生态状况比较安全;未来几年,驱动力、压力、状态维度生态安全指数停滞不前,影响和响应维度生态指数极佳。因此,贵州省应深化“绿水青山就是金山银山”的理念,合理开发旅游资源,实施生态环境综合治理。In order to gain insight into the ecological security status and changing trends of karst mountainous areas,this paper took Guizhou Province as the research object and used data from 2001 to 2019,then built an evaluation index system based on the DPSIR model.After that,this study employed TOPSIS method improved by entropy method to evaluate regional ecological security situation.Finally,this study predicted the future evolution trend with the help of the radial basis function(RBF)neural network model.The results showed that:Since the 21st century,the comprehensive index of ecological security has increased up and downs.As the time goes,the ecological safety of mountain travel areas has improved obviously.From the perspective of various dimensions,the ecological safety index of driving force and pressure has declined and then increased,and state dimension is opposite.The ecological safety index of impact and response increased greatly.If no serious environmental accidents happen in 2020-2025,the mountain tourism ecology of Guizhou Province will be safe.In the next few years,the ecological safety index of driving force,pressure,and status will stagnate and be maintained the“warning”level.Impact and response dimension will be maintained in a level of“very safe”.Therefore,it’s necessary for Guizhou Province to deepen the concept of“green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains”,rationally develop tourism resources,and implement comprehensive management of the ecological environment.

关 键 词：DPSIR模型 生态安全评价 径向基函数 TOPSIS法 山地旅游 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F062.2[经济管理—产业经济]