数据驱动的图书销量预测理论框架研究  

Research on Theoretical Framework of Data-Driven Book Sales Forecasting

作　　者：任娟 REN Juan(Shanghai Publishing and Printing College;Shanghai Research Institute of Publishing and Media)

机构地区：[1]上海出版印刷高等专科学校 [2]上海出版传媒研究院

出　　处：《出版与印刷》2022年第3期10-21,共12页Publishing & Printing

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基于在线评论情感分析的图书销量预测研究”(编号19YJCZH130)。

摘　　要：图书在线评论是图书销量的关键预测指标和口碑传播方式。文章梳理和总结了四种理论视角下的图书销量预测研究,从图书特征和图书网络口碑两个层面分析影响图书销量的主要因素,以图书在线评论为例,构建数据驱动的图书销量预测理论框架,将在线评论情感分析纳入图书销量预测框架,并对核心内容模块和关键问题解决思路进行解析。所构建的数据驱动的图书销量预测理论框架可以为图书行业市场调查与营销管理提供深度剖析,为出版机构运营管理提供理论依据。Online book reviews are the key indices of book sales forecasting and the mechanism of word-of-mouth communication.This paper summarizes the research on book sales forecasting from four theoretical perspectives and analyzes the main factors for book sales from two aspects of book characteristics and online word-of-mouth communication.By taking online book reviews as an example,a theoretical framework of data-driven book sales forecasting is constructed,in which online review sentiment analysis is integrated.The core content modules and the key problem solutions are analyzed.The theoretical framework of data-driven book sales forecasting can provide the in-depth analysis for the book industry research and marketing management and provide a theoretical basis for the operation and management of publishing organizations.

关 键 词：数据驱动 图书销量预测 图书在线评论 情感分析 

分 类 号：G235[文化科学]