考虑随机共因失效的可修表决系统任务成功性模型  

Mission success probability model for repairable vote system with random common cause failure

作　　者：路君 尹东亮 LU Jun;YIN Dong-liang(Dept.of Operational Research and Programming,Naval Univ.of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学作战运筹与规划系,武汉430033

出　　处：《海军工程大学学报》2022年第4期93-98,共6页Journal of Naval University of Engineering

摘　　要：针对装备突发性故障的随机性对装备任务成功性的影响,引入随机共因失效对其进行描述,考虑以往建模采用指数分布等典型分布造成模型适用性较窄、通用性不强的问题,利用Phase-type分布对模型参数进行假设,建立了任务成功稳态概率模型和系统失效故障间隔时间模型,并结合算例演示了部件数量k对系统任务成功性指标的影响。算例结果表明:该模型构建合理,适用性较强,具有一定的实践价值。Aiming at the influence of randomness of equipment sudden failure on equipment sudden failure on equipment mission success,random common cause failure(RCCF)is therefore introduced to describe its influence on the mission success probability of equipment.However,the traditional models of exponential distribution and other typical distributions are less applicable and insufficiently universal.Phase-type(PH)distribution was utilized with the hypothesized parameters to build a mission success probability model and generated a number of representative indicators including the mission success steady-state probability.An example was presented to illustrate how the varying number of parts affects the mission success probability indicators of the system.The result shows that the model is reasonably constructed,highly applicable,and practically valuable.

关 键 词：可修表决系统 随机共因失效 任务成功性 Phase-type分布 

分 类 号：F253.4[经济管理—国民经济]