面向亚轨道解体事故的碎片扩散分布建模研究  

Research on modeling of debris diffusion distribution for suborbital disintegration accident

作　　者：陈万通[1,2] 田书雨 张巨联 刘庆 任诗雨 CHEN Wantong;TIAN Shuyu;ZHANG Julian;LIU Qing;REN Shiyu(Key Laboratory of Civil Aviation Flight Wide Area Surveillance and Safety Control Technology,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;School of Electronic Information and Automation,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Shanghai Aircraft Design and Research Institute,Shanghai 201109,China;Shanghai Aerospace Electronics Technology Institute,Shanghai 201109,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航航班广域监视与安全管控技术重点实验室,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学电子信息与自动化学院,天津300300 [3]上海飞机设计研究院,上海201109 [4]上海航天电子技术研究所,上海201109

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2022年第9期2922-2928,共7页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61901477);天津市教委科研计划(2020KJ011);中国民航大学民航航班广域监视与安全管控技术重点实验室开放基金(202005)资助课题。

摘　　要：针对未来愈发频繁的商业亚轨道发射活动,为降低亚轨道突发解体事故给民航客机带来的运行风险,提高空管监视系统对危险情况的应急响应能力,利用协方差传播算法对亚轨道解体事故碎片落点进行快速预测。该算法围绕线性化的标称轨迹,将碎片落点预测的随机过程建模为高斯-马尔可夫过程。同时,通过概率密度函数构造高斯-马尔可夫过程在一定置信度下的概率椭球,量化碎片落点在标称轨迹附近的位置。在此基础上,参照航天器标准解体模型,对影响碎片传播轨迹的弹道系数进行推导计算。仿真结果表明,该方法可有效提高碎片危险区的预测准确度。In response to the increasingly frequent commercial suborbital launch activities in the future,a covariance propagation algorithm is used to rapidly predict the debris drop points of suborbital disintegration accidents to reduce the operational risk of suborbital sudden disintegration accidents to civil airliners and to improve the emergency response capability of the air traffic control surveillance system to hazardous situations.The algorithm models the stochastic process of debris drop points prediction as a Gauss-Markov process around a linearized nominal trajectory.At the same time,the probability ellipsoid of the Gauss-Markov process at a certain confidence level is constructed by the probability density function to quantify the positions of the debris drop points in the vicinity of the nominal trajectory.On this basis,the ballistic coefficients affecting the debris propagation trajectory are derived and calculated concerning the standard disintegration model of spacecraft.Simulation results show that the method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the debris hazard area.

关 键 词：亚轨道解体事故 协方差传播算法 标准解体模型 弹道系数 危险区预测 

分 类 号：V411.8[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]