安吉县森林资源督查现状分析与发展趋势预测  

Current Situation and Prediction of Forest Resources Supervision in Anji County

作　　者：刘勇[1] 余礼华 沈燕波 张周婷 丁铁珍 吴雪玲 LIU Yong;YU Li-hua;SHEN Yan-bo;ZHANG Zhou-ting;DING Tie-zhen;WU Xue-ling(Anji Forestry Bureau of Zhejiang,Anji 313300,China;China University of Political Science and Law,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]安吉县林业局,浙江安吉313300 [2]中国政法大学,北京100088

出　　处：《浙江林业科技》2022年第5期124-128,共5页Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology

摘　　要：以浙江省安吉县为研究对象,分析2018—2021年森林督查图斑数据,研究安吉县森林督查图斑、违法图斑的变化规律及存在问题,并采用二次指数平滑法,对2022—2026年违法图斑数量进行预测。结果表明,安吉县自实施森林督查以来,虽然违法图斑占督查图斑的比例总体呈逐年降低趋势,但全县整体呈现违法图斑类型、分布较为集中的现象,且基础设施建设类和投资开发类违法图斑占比逐年增大;在安吉县森林资源管理中存在“一地多证”、林地报批流程不够完善、城市发展与林地保护矛盾、林草行政执法监督力量不足等问题。通过二次指数平滑法预测2022—2026年趋势表明,若持续推进森林督查,违法图斑数量将呈下降趋势。基于以上分析结果,本文提出促进调查监测数据融合、完善林地报批流程、合理开发利用森林资源及强化林业执法监管力度等对策,拟为今后森林督查和森林资源保护方式方法改进提供参考。Analysis was made on forest supervision patterns in Anji county,Zhejiang province from 2018 to 2021.The results show that there were totally 2223 spots,among them,184 illegal ones,accounting for 8.28%.Analysis was carried out on distribution of illegal spots and causes of these problems.Prediction was implemented on forest supervision from 2022 to 2026 by second exponential smoothing.Countermeasures such as integration of survey and monitoring data,etc.

关 键 词：森林督查 违法图斑 变化规律 现状分析 预测 安吉县 

分 类 号：S757.2[农业科学—森林经理学]