国房景气指数对CPI和CCI影响及CPI预测模型研究  

Research on the Impact of the National Housing Climate Index CPI and CCI and CPI Prediction Model on CPI and CCI and CPI Prediction Model

作　　者：李红娟 卢天哲 祝汉灿[1] LI Hong-juan;LU Tian-zhe;ZHU Han-can(School of Mathematical Information,Shaoxing University,Shaoxing 312000,China)

机构地区：[1]绍兴文理学院数理信息学院,浙江绍兴312000

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2022年第8期70-77,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：目前我国部分城市房市波动较大,并且已对很多行业产生不同程度的影响,通过建立VAR模型分析国房景气指数对消费者信心指数和居民消费价格指数的影响,发现国房景气指数对居民消费价格指数影响呈正向促进作用,1-3期呈递增趋势,第4期开始影响逐渐平稳,而对消费者信心指数影响呈先抑制后促进趋势.并针对居民消费价格指数季节波动特性,提出了一种SAO-ARIMA-MA模型对我国居民消费价格指数进行预测,选取2000年01月至2020年06月数据进行建模,预测2020年第三季度和第四季度的居民消费价格指数,结果表明本文所建模型预测平均绝对误差为0.538,为居民消费价格指数预测提供一种新的方法.At present,the housing market in some cities in China hasfluctuated greatly,and has had varying degrees of influence on many industries.This paper analyzes the influ-ence of the national housing boom index on consumer confidence index and consumer price index by establishing VAR model.It is found that the national housing boom index has a positive effect on consumer price index.The influence of the national housing boom index on consumer price index is increasing in the period 1-3,and gradually stable in the period 4,and the influence on consumer confidence index isfirst inhibited and then promoted.Accord-ing to the seasonalfluctuation characteristics of consumer price index,a SAO-ARIMA-MA model is proposed to predict the consumer price index in China.The data from January 2000 to June 2020 are selected to model and predict the consumer price index in the third and fourth quarters of 2020.The results show that the average absolute error of the model is 0.538,which provides a new method for the prediction of consumer price index.

关 键 词：国房景气指数 消费者信心指数 居民消费价格指数 季节调整 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] F299.23