OPEC生产配额调整能否影响油价走势?基于动态不一致性视角  

Can OPEC Production Quota Adjustments Influence the Trend of Oil Prices?A Dynamic Inconsistency Perspective

作　　者：廖华[1,2] 张彤 王萱[3] LIAO Hua;ZHANG Tong;WANG Xuan(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company Ltd.,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081 [3]中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司,北京100081

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2022年第3期681-702,共22页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金(71925008)。

摘　　要：本文以1995-2020年石油输出国组织(OPEC)历次会议公告为样本,考察OPEC生产配额调整公告能否影响国际原油价格走势.首先,选取会议前后不同时间窗口油价变化率从短中长期分别研究OPEC生产配额调整对油价的影响.结果不支持OPEC影响了油价走势的相关判断.其次,运用事件研究法分别基于大宗商品价格指数和金属期货价格检验会议公告前后油价是否产生异常收益率,以揭示油价响应OPEC生产配额调整公告的内在机制,结果表明油价在会议公告前就已经出现相应变动.OPEC生产配额政策与开放经济条件下的货币政策有一定共性.引入货币政策动态不一致性理论探讨了OPEC会议后油价不再变动是因为OPEC生产配额的调整信息被市场提前预期到.研究显示在OPEC由个体生产配额制过渡到新的集体生产配额制的背景下,不应夸大OPEC会议公告对油价的影响这对于解读国际油价和认识OPEC的经济谈判能力有参考价值.This paper examines if Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)can affect the trend of crude oil prices,using the announcements information of OPEC meetings from 1995 to 2020.First,we explore the effects of production quota adjustments on world crude oil prices in the short,medium,and long run respectively.The results do not support that OPEC can significantly affect oil prices.Further,to analyze the mechanism of oil price responses to OPEC production adjustment,this paper uses the event study method to examine there are oil price fluctuates or abnormal revenue before and after meeting announcement.The results show that oil prices have already changed before OPEC announcements.The OPEC production quota policy is similar to the monetary policy under the open economy.Based on the dynamic inconsistency theory,this paper discusses the reason why oil prices have changed in advance.It is because that OPEC production adjustment information has already been expected by the market,resulting in no changes in oil prices after meetings.This study implies that in the context of from individual production quota to collective production quota,the effect of OPEC production adjustment on world crude oil prices should not be exaggerated,which is of great significance for China to interpret and predict international oil price,and understand the negotiation power of OPEC on the economic dimension.

关 键 词：石油输出国组织 原油价格 生产配额 会议公告 动态不一致 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1