基于灰色Verhulst模型的灌溉水利用系数预测研究---以咸阳市为例  

Prediction of Irrigation Water Utilization Coefficient Based on Grey Verhulst Model--Taking Xianyang City as an Example

作　　者：郑招阳 陈新明[1,2] ZHENG Zhaoyang;CHEN Xinming(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water and Soil Engineering,Ministry of Education,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2022年第4期64-71,共8页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

基　　金：“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目“陕北黄土高原特色经济林节水增效技术研究与集成应用”(2016YFC0400204)。

摘　　要：采用灰色系统理论建立了灰色Verhulst模型,进而基于背景值和初值进行不同组合优化,构建了三种灰色Verhulst改进模型。以咸阳市2015年—2020年灌溉水利用系数为例,通过比较分析各模型预测结果,预测了咸阳市2021年—2023年灌溉水利用系数。灰色Verhulst模型及其三种改进模型均通过模型精度检验的指标,且各模型模拟的变化趋势与咸阳市2015年—2020年灌溉水利用系数变化趋势均表现出较好的一致性,基本符合咸阳市农业和水利发展状况。灰色Verhulst模型及其三种改进模型对于灌溉水利用系数的计算结果是科学合理可靠的,可适用于其他情况相似城市的灌溉水利用系数预测研究。The gray Verhulst model is established by using the gray system theory,and three gray Verhulst improvement models are constructed based on different combinations of background value and initial value.Taking the 2015—2020 irrigation water utilization coefficient of Xianyang as an example,the 2021—2023 irrigation water utilization coefficient of Xianyang was predicted by comparing and analyzing the prediction results of each model.The grey Verhulst model and its three improved models all passed the index of the model accuracy test,and the trend simulated by each model showed a good consistency with the trend of the irrigation water utilization coefficient in Xianyang from 2015 to2020,which was basically in line with the development of agriculture and water conservancy in Xianyang.The calculation results of the gray Verhulst model and its three improved models for the irrigation water utilization coefficient are scientific,reasonable and reliable.The model can be applied to the prediction research of the irrigation water uutilization coefficient in other cities with similar conditions.

关 键 词：灌溉水利用系数 灰色VERHULST模型 优化 预测 咸阳市 

分 类 号：S274.1[农业科学—农业水土工程]