基于BN-FCEM的航道整治施工安全风险评估  

Safety Risk Assessment of Waterway Regulation Construction Based on BN-FCEM

作　　者：谭钰 游涛[1] 潘锋 曹周红[1] TAN Yu;YOU Tao;PAN Feng;CAO Zhouhong(School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha,Hunan 410114,China;CCCC Water Resources and Hydropower Construction Co.,Ltd.,Ningbo,Zhejiang 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学水利与环境工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [2]中交水利水电建设有限公司,浙江宁波310000

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2022年第4期72-78,共7页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

摘　　要：为了确保京杭运河M航段航道整治工程施工安全进行,以土方工程为例,建立模糊综合贝叶斯(BN-FCEM)模型对施工安全风险进行评估。基于贝叶斯网络理论(Bayesian network,BN)确定安全风险发生的概率等级,采用模糊综合评价法(The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,FECM)评估安全风险发生的损失性,最后综合安全风险发生的可能性及损失性得出总体施工安全风险评估等级。结果表明,该土方工程施工安全风险等级为Ⅲ级,风险不期望,评估结果与工程实际相符合。所建模型对航道整治施工安全风险评估有较好的适用性,能为类似工程施工安全风险评估提供参考。In order to ensure the construction safety of waterway regulation project in M section of Beijing-Hangzhou Canal,a fuzzy comprehensive Bayesian model is established to evaluate the construction safety risk based on the case of the earthwork.The probability of security risk is evaluated by Bayesian network theory and the Loss of Safety Risk is evaluated by the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.The overall construction safety risk assessment level is determined based on the possibility and loss of safety risk.The results show that the construction risk level of the earthwork project is III,with the risk not expected.The evaluation results are consistent with the engineering practice and the established model can provide reference for the safety risk assessment of similar projects.

关 键 词：航道整治 施工安全 风险评估 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：U617.2[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] TP399[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]