空间视角下中国老年抚养比对人身险保费收入的影响  

The Impact of the Elderly Dependency Ratio on Personal Insurance Premium Income in China from the Perspective of Space

作　　者：李春华 滕兆哲 王勇[2] LI Chunhua;TENG Zhaozhe;WANG Yong(School of Economics,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530006,China;China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学经济学院,广西南宁530006 [2]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《人口与社会》2022年第4期90-101,共12页Population and Society

基　　金：广西哲学社会科学规划研究课题“广西人口老龄化对广西经济增长的影响及对策研究”(20FRK001)。

摘　　要：基于2007—2019年中国31个省区市面板数据,使用以地理距离矩阵与经济距离矩阵为权重矩阵的空间杜宾模型,探究老年抚养比对人身险及其三类子险种保费收入的影响。研究发现:人身险保费收入在两类矩阵下皆存在显著的正向空间相关性,老年抚养比的提高显著降低了本地区的人身险保费收入水平,但增加了周边地区的人身险保费收入。对于人身险的三类子险种,老年抚养比对其保费收入的影响与对人身险保费收入影响的方向相同,其中,对健康险保费收入的影响最大。从经济、文化与行业三个方面提出建议,首先需提高地区经济水平与生活质量,其次应加强人们的参保意识,最后要适当降低老年人口购买人身险的门槛。Taking the panel data of 31 provinces/cities in China from 2007 to 2019 as the sample, this paper explores the impact of elderly dependency ratio on personal insurance and it’s three subcategories premium income through Spatial Durbin Model with geographical distance matrix and economic distance matrix as the weight matrix. The results show that: there is a significant positive spatial correlation of personal insurance premium income under the two kinds of matrices, and the increase of the elderly dependency ratio significantly reduces the level of personal insurance premium income in the region and has a significantly positive effect on the personal insurance premium income in the surrounding areas. For the three subtypes of personal insurance, the role of elderly dependency ratio is the same as that of personal insurance, and the elderly dependency ratio has the greatest impact on health insurance. The paper puts forward suggestions from three aspects of economy, culture and industry. Firstly, the regional economic level and quality of life should be improved. Secondly, people’s insurance consciousness should be strengthened. Finally, the threshold for the elderly to buy life insurance should be appropriately lowered.

关 键 词：人身险 保费收入 老年抚养比 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F842