揭示电力系统运行数据中因果关系的逆信息熵因果推理方法  

A Reciprocal Information Entropy Causal Inference Method for Exploring the Cause-effect Relationship in Power System Operation Data

作　　者：穆钢[1] 陈奇 刘洪波 安军[1] 王长刚 MU Gang;CHEN Qi;LIU Hongbo;AN Jun;WANG Changgang(Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control&Renewable Energy Technology(Northeast Electric Power University),Ministry of Education,Jilin 132012,Jilin Province,China)

机构地区：[1]现代电力系统仿真控制与绿色电能新技术教育部重点实验室(东北电力大学),吉林省吉林市132012

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2022年第15期5406-5416,共11页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51437003)。

摘　　要：随着电力系统数据采集手段的不断完善,基于数据的分析方法在电力系统运行分析中扮演着日益重要的角色。现有的数据分析方法主要分析数据之间的相关关系。事实上,两个强相关变量间通常呈现出不对称的因果关系。若能揭示电力系统运行变量间的因果关系,必将有助于深刻地洞察电力系统运行的内在规律性。近年来,因果推断的研究取得很大进展,使得基于数据的因果分析成为可能。该文从物理机制上揭示电力系统中强相关变量之间因果关系的不对称属性;提出一种逆信息熵因果推理(reciprocal information entropy causal inference,RIECI)方法,所构建的指标不仅可以有效判别相关变量间的因果方向,还能正确反映因果强度。在电力系统算例中的验证表明,RIECI方法能有效揭示电力系统运行数据中的因果关系。对电力系统运行数据中因果关系的分析对于认知电力系统运行机理和正确调控电力系统运行状态有重要意义。With the massive power system operation data acquisition,the data-based analysis method plays an increasingly important role in operational analysis of power systems.Most of the existing data-based analysis methods mainly focus on correlations between data sequences.Any two variables are mutually correlated.But the asymmetric causality is generally presented between two correlated variables.Revealing the cause-effect relationship between operation variables can bring us more insight into the operation regularity of power system.Many achievements have been made in causal inference studies in recent years.In this paper,the asymmetrical cause-effect relationships in correlated variables of power systems were revealed physically.A new causal inference method-reciprocal information entropy causal inference(RIECI)method was proposed.The causal strength could be correctly reflected by the proposed causal index of RIECI.The validation in power system examples shows that the RIECI method can effectively reveal the cause-effect relationships in power system operation data.Comparing with the mutual correlations,the cause-effect relationship is helpful for soundly recognizing the operation mechanism and correctly regulating the operation state of the power systems based on the operation data.

关 键 词：电力系统数据分析 因果关系 因果推理 逆信息熵因果推理方法 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]