土地资产价格波动与经济中的流动性供给--基于以地融资视角的研究  

Land Asset Price Fluctuation and Liquidity Supply:A Study from the Perspective of Land Financing

作　　者：郭杰[1] 饶含 GUO Jie;RAO Han(School of Economics,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《金融研究》2022年第7期76-93,共18页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文通过构建理论模型探讨土地资产价格波动与流动性供给之间的关系。在本文模型中,土地兼具生产资本与抵押资产属性,银行贷款同时受到投资需求、抵押品价值与信贷额度的约束。本文主要结论是:(1)土地资产价格在低于一个由基础货币供给决定的临界值后,能影响企业的抵押品价值并反映投资需求变化,故而与存款货币流动性供给正相关。这也使土地资产价格变化与企业杠杆周期一致且具有“预期自我实现”特征。(2)基础货币供给能够通过影响土地的流动性价值的方式来引导土地资产价格,前提是央行可掌握土地资产价格外生变化的原因。(3)信贷资产证券化会提高存款货币供给与土地价格的关联度,但也会削弱基础货币供给对土地价格的引导能力。本文的研究有助于认识土地资产价格与货币政策效果以及系统性金融风险的关联机制,为房地产调控政策提供启示。The modern financial system still faces the problem of limited commitment to a certain extent,as co mmercial banks still need enterprises to reduce their loan risk by providing guaranteed future income(i.e.,safe assets).Meanwhile,land assets not only have the value of being difficult to replace but are also quasi-safe assets.Therefore,the land mortgage financing mode provides a way for the physical sector to win the trust of commercial banks at a low opportunity cost,which provides an important boost to the growth of the economic aggregate in a specific stage.However,it also binds the credit of the whole society(mainly reflected in the deposit money supply)to a single asset:land.When the land asset price bubble bursts,it will severely damage the financial credit of the whole society.In fact,the deep correlation between land asset prices and the financial credit is one of the important reasons for the creation of the land asset bubble:this is the systemic financial risk implied by the price fluctuation of land assets.Studying the relationship between land asset prices and the liquidity supply is helpful to understand not only the collateral and investment demand information reflected in the asset price that must be considered in the central bank's liquidity investment process but also the sources of the systemic financial risks related to land assets and the solutions to these risks.The research on this topic can be traced back to the positive feedback mechanism between land asset prices and the liquidity supply discussed by Kiyotaki and Moore(1997).To better understand the financial risk of the asset bubble caused by land mortgage leverage,this paper also introduces the mortgage asset price analysis represented by Geanakoplos(2010,2014).In addition,as China's banking system is the center of its financial system,this paper discusses the ability of the base money supply led by the central bank to eliminate the land asset price bubble by restricting mortgage leverage and the impact of credit asset securitization on

关 键 词：土地资产价格 货币政策 内生性货币供给 抵押贷款 信贷资产证券化 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]