林火发生预报模型研究进展  

Research Progress in Forest Fire Occurrence Prediction Models

作　　者：朱政 赵璠 王秋华 邓小凡 高仲亮 Zheng Zhu;Fan Zhao;Qiuhua Wang;Xiaofan Deng;Zhongliang Gao(College of Big Data and Intelligent Engineering,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,China;College of Civil Engineering,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,China)

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学大数据与智能工程学院,昆明650224 [2]西南林业大学土木工程学院,昆明650224

出　　处：《世界林业研究》2022年第3期26-31,共6页World Forestry Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“云南林区林火动态驱动因素及变化趋势研究”(32160374);云南省基础研究计划项目“气候变化背景下的云南林区林火动态预测研究”(202101AT070045);云南省农业联合专项“云南滇中山地林区林火发生预报模型研究”(2018FG001-097)。

摘　　要：森林火灾直接影响森林生态环境质量,严重威胁人类生命财产安全,还会造成病虫害频发、群落退化等次生灾害。由于综合考虑了各类影响林火发生的因子,林火发生预报模型是目前预报结果最为准确的林火预报预测方法。文中从林火驱动因子、林火发生预报模型构建、模型检验方法等3个方面综述国内外林火发生预报模型的发展现状和研究成果,讨论各类林火发生预报模型的优缺点,梳理目前研究中存在的问题,对其研究前景进行展望,并结合我国实际情况提出开展更大空间尺度林火预报的研究建议,以期为相关研究和林火管理工作提供参考。Forest fires will directly affect the quality of forest ecological environment,seriously threaten the safety of human life and property,and cause secondary disasters such as frequent occurrence of pests and diseases and community degradation.Because of the comprehensive consideration of various factors that affect the occurrence of forest fires,the forest fire occurrence prediction model is the most accurate method of forecasting forest fires.This paper reviews the development status and research results of forest fire forecast models at home and abroad from three aspects of forest fire driving factors,forest fire occurrence prediction model construction,and model verification methods.It discusses the advantages and disadvantages of various forest fire occurrence prediction models,identifies the existing problems rising in the current research,and describes its research prospects.The suggestions for the research on forest fire prediction on a larger spatial scale are put forward based on the actual situation in China,with a view to providing reference for related research and forest fire management.

关 键 词：林火预防 林火发生预报 模型构建 

分 类 号：S762.1[农业科学—森林保护学]