总统角色、群体互动与美国的阿富汗战争决策  

President’s Role, Intra-Group Interaction and the US Decision-Making on Afghanistan War

作　　者：刁大明 Diao Daming(School of International Studies,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院,北京100872

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2022年第8期31-54,155,156,共26页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：随着美国的仓促撤军,阿富汗战争宣告结束。在过去近20年中,分属两党的四任美国总统及其决策团队共同导致了美国在阿富汗的困境。截然不同的总统及其团队在不同时间节点所做出的决策很难用小集团思维全部解释,其中的差异性因素需要进一步深究。在总统角色—群体互动分析框架下,总统及其团队在经验、忠诚度等维度上的不同组合形成不同的群体互动,导致小集团思维、多元思维或其他非典型思维模型,产出相应决策结果。通过对四个决策个案的研究发现,四任总统的决策过程并非全都陷入小集团思维。不同经验与偏好的四任总统及其所决定的具有不同经验和忠诚度的团队先后形成了“导师团队”“对手团队”“合伙人团队”以及“助手团队”四类非制度化的群体互动,导致了不同的思维模型与决策结果。人事即决策,总统依照个人风格与政治需求所决定的团队构成一定程度上设定了未来决策的生态与方向。基于总统制的纽带作用,美国国内政治发展也正在明显牵动其对外政策的选择与走向。With a hasty withdrawal of US troops,the US war in Afghanistan was declared over. In the past two decades, the four presidents from the two parties and their teams have successively and jointly led to the US dilemma in Afghanistan,which is worthy of deep consideration. Based on the limited information from the memoirs written by decision-makers and relevant documentary works,and with the two analytical dimensions of presidential role and intra-group interaction,the article attempts to analyze the Afghanistan-related decision-making process and its different factors when the four presidents and their teams came to power. The article argues that the decisions of the presidents are not all trapped in the “groupthink”. The experience of the four presidents and the team arrangement determined by them have formed different non-institutional intra-group interactions such as “team of mentors”,“team of rivals”,“team of partners” and “team of assistants”,leading to different thinking patterns,which directly influence the decision-making results. Generally,personnel is decisionmaking. The team arrangement determined by the president according to his personal style and political needs sets the ecology and direction of future decision-making to a certain extent. Based on the linking role of the US presidency,the US domestic political dilemma is obviously affecting the direction of its foreign policy.

关 键 词：美国对外决策 阿富汗战争 群体决策 总统角色 群体互动 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]